*3 Star Play Under* The Bengals and Titans have played twice in the last couple seasons. The final scores of those two games were 19-16 (in overtime) and 20-16. This total is set low for a reason. 

Joe Burrow is a great quarterback when healthy. He is clearly not healthy right now. He's a battler and he'll do his best to help his team win, but it is tough for him to throw the ball down the field right now. The Bengals offense has a much harder time breaking big gainers in its current state. 

Cincinnati's offensive line isn't very good still, and the Titans have been shutting down the run game all year. Joe Mixon isn't likely to be very efficient here. 

The Bengals defensive line dominated the Rams offensive line on Monday night. The Titans offensive line is a major weakness. I think Cincinnati will get in the backfield early and often here. 

Tennessee wants to turn every game into a low scoring rock right. The Bengals are far more prone to that kind of game with Burrow playing severely hampered. Both teams have played at a slower than average pace this year as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats are a team I circled in the preseason that I wanted to bet a lot of overs on. GJ Kinne has completely changed the way this team plays. They brought in multiple good QB transfers. Texas State is 15th in tempo in the country. They will continually play as fast as possible. The Bobcats are very explosive on offense too. They already have 31 plays of 20 yards or more which is sixth most in the country. 

The Southern Miss defense was good in the past, but they are no longer good. Southern Miss lost star defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to Florida, and they definitely miss him. The Golden Eagles just gave up 44 points to lowly Arkansas State. Southern Miss is 131st out of 133 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think they'll give up big gainers here.

The Southern Miss offense is 42nd in explosiveness and Texas State's defense is 116th in explosiveness allowed. Southern Miss does have 7 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Their passing game is a bit better than it has been.

This number has been knocked down to a point where I have to bet this one to go over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Redhawks have a really good quarterback in Brett Gabbert. Gabbert is being very aggressive with throwing the ball downfield this year. Gabbert has one of the highest average of depth of targets in the country at 13.2 yards per pass attempt. Gabbert is a good decision maker and he gets rid of the ball pretty quickly. Rashad Amos has been a pretty good running back for the Redhawks this year as well. This team has been able to have more balance so far this year. Miami is 9th in explosiveness on offense, and I think they'll bust several big gainers in this game. 

Kent State is a really bad team. The Golden Flashes defense has already allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. The Kent State offense has looked a little better in recent weeks. They are up against a Miami defense that isn't as good as they have been in recent years. The Redhawks are 108th in YPP allowed. I don't think Kent State will score a lot here, but I think they can score enough.

Miami's offense should have their way and this total has dropped to a number far below average in college football. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston College Eagles offense is definitely better than I expected with Thomas Castellanos doing a good job making some big plays from the quarterback position. Castellanos can sometimes come up with some miracle plays that are big hitters. Boston College has 16 plays of 20 yards or more in two games in the ACC (FSU and Louisville). 

The Boston College defense is worse than anyone could have expected. They are 127th in yards per play allowed this year. They are 132nd in opposing QBR allowed. They have already allowed 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. This secondary is really bad.

Virginia's Anthony Colandrea is quite the experience. He's a youngster who can make some things happen and takes chances. He also is more than capable of throwing a pick six at any point because he tries to throw into spots that just aren't there. The Cavs are 20th in explosiveness on offense, and it is primarily thanks to him going downfield as often as possible. 

The Virginia defense is far worse than a year ago. The Cavs are 128th in success rate allowed on defense. 

Boston College is 13th in tempo on the season. I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday. This has the makings of a game with very few possessions because of the pace both teams play at this season.

Florida is 128th in tempo and Kentucky is 115th in tempo. Both teams are taking more than 30 seconds between snaps. With the new rules in college football this year, teams like these two are going to be able to eat up quite a bit of clock in each drive. 

Austin Armstrong is a fantastic defensive coordinator. The Florida Gators defense is much improved this year. Florida is second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are creating pressure on the quarterback and Devin Leary isn't particularly mobile. 

Kentucky's defense has been solid for several years in a row. The Wildcats offense looks better on paper than it is because they really haven't been tested by a single good defense yet. 

Last year when these two teams met the two offenses struggled badly. They put up 4.4 and 4.3 yards per play in that game. Florida is definitely better on defense this year, and the Gators are playing slower on offense.

A hard fought low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren't the same team they were a year ago. Minnesota had a top 10 defense in the country last year. Minnesota has only played one good offense so far this year (N Carolina) and yet they are 86th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Minnesota is 128th in third down defense. The Golden Gophers defensive front is far weaker than it has been in recent years.

Louisiana has a good offensive line and a mobile quarterback who can make some big plays. The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 6.26 ypc on the season. They have scored 31 points or more in each of their games so far this season. The Louisiana defense has allowed 38 points to Buffalo and 38 points to Old Dominion.

I think Minnesota's games are being totaled too low right now based on their past history. This Minnesota team has a new OC who is playing somewhat faster and the Golden Gophers defense is far weaker.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox offense has been terrible against right handed pitching all season. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (.292) against right handed pitching this season. Chicago is trotting out a really weak lineup right now, and they are easily last in wOBA for the past 30 days overall as well (.281 wOBA). 

The San Diego Padres start Nick Martinez here. Martinez is at least an average right handed pitcher. He has been pitching well of late. I like his chances of slowing down the White Sox offense.

Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox here. Cease still has elite stuff, but he has been inconsistent this year. Cease has been very good in his last three starts. He has a 1.96 ERA and a 2.00 FIP in his last three starts. Cease now faces a Padres team that won't make the playoffs and has been inconsistent all year offensively. 

The Padres have seen 7 of their last 8 games stay under this total. The White Sox have seen 8 of their last 10 games stay under this total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much improved. Many still think of KC as a team that has to win shootouts, but that is no longer true. The Chiefs are 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. They have faced a good Detroit offense and that was without star Chris Jones. They then took on a talented Jacksonville offense and did a great job holding them to 271 yards and 9 points. 

The Chicago Bears are 26th in the NFL in yards per play. Justin Fields hasn't looked good at all, and the KC defensive line is likely to be far too much for this Bears offensive line.

The Kansas City offense isn't quite clicking on all cylinders yet and they do still have some injuries.  

There is a very strong system that backs the under here. Andy Reid at home as a big favorite has been a great under bet. Why? Reid is well known for when his team gets the lead by margin he takes his foot off the gas and doesn't use his best plays. 

Reid's teams at home favored by 7.5 points or more- the under is a whopping 39-16-3 since 2004. The average margin of is nearly 6 points to the under. In this situation when it is a non-divisional game the under is 28-9 in the last 37.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins have been the best offense in the NFL so far, and it hasn't been close. Miami is averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play on the season. They put up 6.4 YPP on a strong New England defense. 

The Denver defense has regressed in a big way this year. Denver also will be without safety Justin Simmons who is a key loss against Tua and this Miami passing attack.

Jaylen Waddle is questionable here. He did practice on Friday which is a good sign. It's a big bonus if he can play in this one.

The Denver offense has been tremendous early in games with their scripted drives. Payton is clearly a big help to Russell Wilson and this offense in general. Denver has more big play ability, and they have picked up their tempo.

I don't think the books have adjusted Denver enough based on their improvement on offense and decline on defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been a tremendous over team on their home turf of late. Jared Goff is a quarterback who is hurt by poor weather conditions more than most in the NFL. Goff has no concerns to worry about on the fast track at Ford Field. Goff also has a really nice cast around him now in Detroit. St. Brown is expected to play in this one and he is an elite WR. I like Gibbs getting most of the carries in the backfield here, because I view him as the more dynamic running back for the Lions. Laporta is fitting in nicely at tight end too.

The Atlanta Falcons have a superstar in the backfield now in Bijan Robinson. He is a game breaker and I expect him to have a big game against a Lions defense that is below average against the run. The Falcons have enough play makers on offense now to be a problem. Ridder is slowly getting better at QB. 

A low total considering the Lions on the fast track. Neither defense is elite and I'll side with the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Indiana Hoosiers have wisely chosen to play a completely different way this season. Indiana is no longer playing as fast as possible. They are trying to run the football and play at a slower tempo. Tom Allen knows his team needs lower scoring games. Indiana ranks 109th out of 133 teams in the country in pace of play this season.

Akron is 119th in tempo so far this year. They have been behind in every game too, so they have been unwilling to pick up the tempo even when they are playing from behind. Irons has been very bad at quarterback for Akron, and Undercuffler has been getting most of the snaps. He isn't good either. Akron has absolutely no ground game. They are averaging 1.63 yards per carry on the season. The Zips defense has been better than expected. Akron is allowing only 3.09 ypc on the season thus far. 

These two teams are 101st and 126th in explosiveness on offense. With a slow pace and the lack of explosive plays, I think this will be a lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies were excited about Joe Fagnano starting as their quarterback for this season. He didn't get to play for long before he was injured. Fagnano is now out for the season. Roberson is back as the Huskies signal caller, and we have a lot of history on him. Roberson isn't very good and the team doesn't take many deep shots with him under center. UConn becomes very one dimensional on offense. The Huskies offense has been really weak this year. They are 124th in offensive success rate.

Duke's defense ranks 4th in explosiveness allowed. The Blue Devils are built to not allow big plays. It is hard to imagine UConn putting together long scoring drives against anyone, and Duke is better defensively than most of UConn's opponents.

The UConn Huskies defense is 23rd in explosiveness allowed. Duke is good on offense, but they are run heavy and do play at a slow pace. 

The weather here should be an issue. The average of four forecasts now calls for winds of about 15-18 mph and 1.5 to 2 inches of rain during the day. This should make both teams even more conservative on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The primary reason for this selection is the weather. Through the years college football games that are windy and rainy have been great to under bettors. Of course there can be a wide range of results, but on the whole it is a clear net positive for lower scoring games. Wind is the most important, but adding in rain to the wind makes it that much harder for the offenses. 

The average of four forecasts here calls for winds of about 21 or 22 mph. There should be sustained rain throughout this game as well. There are gusts of 30 or 35 in the forecast too.

In this game, we have a Miami team that ranks 127th in the nation in pace. The Hurricanes have shown they are more than willing to slow the game down and let the clock run with the new rules implemented this year in college football. 

Temple is a very poor rushing team. If they can't have Warner throwing it around this offense just isn't very good at all. 

Both of these defenses have been pretty good this season. They should have an advantage in these conditions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston College defense has been awful this year. The Eagles allowed 7.3 YPP against Holy Cross a couple weeks ago. Last week Florida State put up 31 points on them with Jordan Travis banged up. It was also very windy in last week's contest. 

Boston College is playing very quickly. They rank 25th in the nation in tempo. The Eagles seem to have found a pretty good quarterback option in Castellanos. He has big play ability but can also turn it over. The Eagles putting up 29 points in the wind against FSU last week was a big step forward for the offense.

Louisville's offense should be good with Jeff Brohm leading the way and Plummer at quarterback. The Cardinals are 10th in the nation at 7.44 YPP on offense thus far. Louisville wants to play quickly too. Louisville has quick strike ability in the passing game, and the BC secondary is a major weakness.

The weather report for this one looks good.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers defense has disappointed so far this year. Their secondary isn't very good, and Purdue has been torched by the big play. The Boilermakers have allowed 22 plays of 20 yards or more. They have played Fresno State, Va Tech (terrible offensively), and Syracuse. Wisconsin has the most offensive talent of the teams Purdue has faced this year. 

The Badgers offense hasn't been great this year, but I expect improvement under Longo. Mordecai is an above average quarterback. With two star running backs who are also good pass catchers, Wisconsin has too many weapons for this Purdue defense.

The Wisconsin defense is way down from a year ago. Wisconsin is 88th in success rate allowed so far this year. The Badgers secondary is down the most. Hudson Card and OC Graham Harrell should be able to move the ball and score on this Badgers defense. Wisconsin gave up 455 yards to GA Southern last week. If Davis Brin hadn't thrown all kinds of red zone interceptions, GA Southern would have scored a bunch of points in that one.

These two are 40th and 42nd in tempo in the country. I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips offense is in really bad shape. DJ Irons has played terribly and the team has no rushing attack. Akron just ran for a grand total of 4 yards against Morgan State last weekend! Akron needed a fluke defensive touchdown in the final seconds to win 24-21 over Morgan State last week. The Zips have had 279 and 270 yards of offense against Temple and Morgan State. Now, they go against a good SEC defense. I don't know if Akron can top 10 points here.

Kentucky's offense hasn't been nearly as good as expected so far this year. Devin Leary has struggled and the offense has lacked explosive plays. The Wildcats only put up 28 points against Eastern Kentucky last weekend. 

These two teams both play very slowly. Two bottom 25 tempo teams with the new clock rules and Kentucky should have a large lead they are looking to sit on late in the game here. 

I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers are a completely different team this year under Trent Dilfer. He has sped the team up drastically, and they are airing it out a lot on early downs. Overall, UAB has passed on 59% of their offensive plays, which is the 10th highest rate in the nation. UAB's offensive line isn't very good, but the Louisiana pass rush is weak. The Ragin' Cajuns secondary has allowed too many big plays as well. I think Jacob Zeno and company could hit several big plays on them throughout this game. 

Louisiana put up 38 on Northwestern State and 31 points on Old Dominion. The Ragin' Cajuns have veteran quarterbacks and a solid offensive line. Louisiana would have even more points this year were it not for poor red zone offense. They have two turnovers inside the 20 yard line already and have TD's on just 3 of 7 trips into the red zone. That should regress positively over time. The UAB defense was once a big strength, but they just allowed 49 points to GA Southern last week.

This total is a few points lower than I made. Both of these teams are quite a bit different from last year and the oddsmakers often have a hard time adjusting on these teams. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave were not the same offense without Michael Pratt last week. Pratt has a knee injury and missed their 37-20 loss against Ole Miss. Pratt is still listed as questionable for this coming weekend, but there are signs he would either miss this coming weekend or be playing at far less than 100%. Pratt is key to the team without Tyjae Spears at running back like they had last year. Tulane only averaged 4.2 YPP against Ole Miss last weekend.

Southern Miss was crushed by Florida State, but the Seminoles offense is going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. Southern Miss is an above average defense. The Golden Eagles offensively are extremely reliant on Frank Gore Jr. in the running game. They simply cannot throw it well enough to keep defenses honest. 

Tulane's defense is led by new DC Shiel Wood who is a defensive mastermind. The front seven on defense has been stuffing the run extremely well for Tulane. I think they'll make Southern Miss throw it on them, and the Golden Eagles likely can't do that. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Old Dominion Monarchs got a new offensive coordinator in the offseason. The former Fordham OC had record setting offenses that played lightning fast in FCS. Old Dominion is already moving very quickly so far this season. The Monarchs are 20th in tempo out of 133 teams. Old Dominion is also getting pretty good quarterback play from Wilson, the QB who was formerly at Fordham and is playing in the same offensive system now. The Monarchs put up 38 points against Louisiana last weekend.

Old Dominion's defense is still very weak. They allowed 31 points against Louisiana, and they allowed 36 against a weak Virginia Tech Hokies offense too. 

Wake Forest always prefers to play fast on offense. They have scored 37 and 36 points in their first two games. The Demon Deacons have too much talent at the wide receiver spot for the ODU secondary to handle. 

The Demon Deacons defense gave up 6.7 yards per play against Vanderbilt. 

Two fast paced teams and I believe this one gets past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kelly vs. Senga is a sneaky good pitching matchup here.

Senga has a 2.52 ERA at home this year. Senga has a 2.72 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has allowed only 4 home runs in those 10 starts. Senga does a good job keeping traffic off the bases. 

Kelly has been fantastic in three of his last four starts. He has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.84 FIP in those four starts. Kelly's one poor start during that time was against the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers offense makes a lot of pitchers look bad.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller is the most consistent under umpire in the majors. His strikes called percentage this year is at a ridiculously high 66.22%. His strikeout/walk ratio is at an almost unheard of 3.80. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles travel to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday. Philadelphia is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Super Bowl. New England's defense was still excellent last year, but their offense wasn't good. 

I don't see much to make me think the Patriots offense has gotten much better this year either. New England still doesn't have a good quarterback, and they are still short on weapons on the outside as well. 

Philadelphia is loaded defensively, and the Eagles defensive line is going to cause major problems for the Patriots in this one.

Bill Belichick is a defensive minded coach, and his defenses have been very ready for the start of the season the last few years. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the Patriots last 5 season openers. The average margin of those unders is a whopping 11 points. I think they'll have a good game plan for this one too.

There is a little rain in the forecast here with a slight wind too. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers offense is clearly going to be better this year. Peyton Thorne is at least a decent quarterback (not great) and Hugh Freeze is a terrific offensive mind. Auburn has very good running back depth, and the talent in the backfield is excellent.

Cal's offense looks completely different this year. Jake Spavital is the new OC and he has this team running at a very fast tempo. Cal was top 35 in the country in tempo in week one and that is even with them winning 58-21 and slowing things down late in the game. This is a new look offense that will take some shots downfield, but they will also run the ball very well. Cal's Jaydn Ott is a star running back. Auburn allowed more than 5 yards per carry in the SEC last year. They allowed 5.15 ypc last week against UMass in their win. Ott is coming off a game where he averaged 9.4 ypc. He should break some big ones here.

The Cal defense is much weaker on the defensive line than they have been in past years. They generate very little pass rush. They aren't very good at stuffing things in the middle. Auburn's run game should have success here.

Auburn will want to play relatively quickly with Freeze. Cal is going to play fast. The number here has gotten too low. This isn't the same Cal team from the last few years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide should play quite a bit differently this year than they did a year ago. They no longer have star quarterback Bryce Young who is now an NFL starter. The Crimson Tide should run the football a lot more than they did in the past. I also expect them to play at a slower pace. A team that runs the ball a lot and plays at a slow pace is a team that could have quite a few less possessions under the new rule with the clock running after first downs other than the last two minutes of the half. I think Alabama is one of those teams.

The Crimson Tide defense is excellent. In fact, I think the Alabama defense will be quite a bit better than a year ago. 

Texas is a really good team overall. I see very few weaknesses on the Longhorns team. I do think they will load up the box and do a solid job limiting explosive runs by Alabama here. Quinn Ewers has still been inaccurate on deeper throws, and the Alabama secondary is a strong unit led by McKinstry. 

I expect both defenses to be well prepared for this huge game in Tuscaloosa. 

I'll take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders lost a ton on offense from last year. The Blue Raiders have a new quarterback who isn't very good, and an offensive line that will struggle against quality defensive fronts all season. MTSU was able to gain only 3.5 yards per play against Alabama. I'm not suggesting Missouri has a defense as good as Alabama, but the Tigers are very solid defensively. 

Missouri has some very good run stuffing defensive tackles. The Tigers should be able to do a great job against the MTSU run game. Missouri's offense isn't a big play offense, and they don't play at a very quick tempo. Missouri had only 3 plays of 20 yards or more against FCS team South Dakota in week one. The MTSU defense is good led by a strong defensive line. 

MTSU played at an extremely slow tempo against Alabama even though they were down big the entire game. I expect the Blue Raiders to keep that tempo slow in this one. 

Missouri put up 28 points in the first half against S Dakota, but only scored 7 in the second. The Tigers have been a team that has let up when up big in the second half in the past. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd defense has been excellent the last few seasons, and I expect it to continue to be that way with Huff as their head coach. Marshall has a really good defensive line that is especially good at stuffing the run. East Carolina is without Holton Ahlers who started at QB for four years for the Pirates, and there is a significant drop off to anyone they put under center this season. I expect East Carolina to play it safe with their offensive game plan. 

The single biggest strength of the entire East Carolina team is their run defense. Marshall wants to run the ball with Rasheen Ali, but I expect East Carolina to make it more difficult for them than most teams will be able to. Marshall's Cam Fancher isn't a guy I trust to make big plays. Fancher can scramble a bit, but he doesn't take many shots downfield. He is a dink and dunk type of quarterback. 

The new clock rules should matter more in a game like this where both teams lack big playmakers on offense, and they want to run the football a lot. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are still both good pitchers, but both of them are certainly past their prime. This isn't the pitching matchup that it would have been a few years ago. 

Justin Verlander has a 3.34 ERA and a 4.04 FIP on the season. Max Scherzer has a 3.55 ERA and a 4.14 FIP. 

These two offenses are both top five in the majors in all major categories for the year. Houston has been on fire offensively of late. They have scored 27 runs in the first two games of this series. 

Both bullpens have been shaky of late, and their depth isn't what it was earlier in the season. There is a very real chance for big innings late here even if the starters pitch well.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best over umpires in baseball. Wegner consistently has a low strikes called percentage and a low strikeout/walk ratio. He can really frustrate pitchers and help the hitter.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Jose State Spartans played a quick tempo last week against USC, and they put up 6.0 yards per play. While USC isn't a great defensive team, for the Spartans to put up those kind of numbers and have success offensively even in a neutral game state in the first half was impressive. 

Oregon State's offensive line is one of the best in the nation. Both Fenwick and Martinez are excellent running backs who are going to put up some big numbers this year. San Jose State's defensive line lost a ton of talent from last year. The Spartans are going to be much weaker on defense this season. DJ Uuiagalelei adds a dimension to the Oregon State offense too. Brian Lindgren is a great offensive coordinator and I like him to have a good plan set for this game.

Oregon State's defense lost a lot from the secondary, and Speights is a big loss at linebacker as well. The Beavers are still decent defensively, but there is a clear drop off. 

San Jose State will push pace and hit some big plays here. Oregon State should consistently move the ball and put up a pretty big number here.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions have a fantastic defense. I think Penn State has the most talented defense in the Big Ten, and that is saying a lot with the talent Michigan and Ohio State have on defense. Penn State has the best secondary in the nation. The Nittany Lions have great linebackers as always, and their defensive line is elite at stopping the run.

West Virginia has a new offensive coordinator in Chad Scott. It has been made clear in the offseason that the goal of this West Virginia new offense is to run the football and play with a much slower tempo. They will be helped in that regard by a pretty good offensive line and the new clock rules which will help them hold onto the football for longer. I am skeptical that they'll be able to score very many points here though against this excellent Nittany Lions defense.

The Penn State offense has a new quarterback in Allar. I think he will be good in time, but the first game it wouldn't surprise me if they are a bit more cautious than normal. Penn State has good running backs and I think they'll run it plenty here. West Virginia's defense is better against the run than against the pass.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats are going to have a whole new look this year. G.J. Kinne is their new head coach this season. He comes over from Incarnate Word where his teams were prolific offensively. Incarnate Word scored 55 points or more in seven of their games last year. Kinne is terrific at working with quarterbacks, and Texas State has an improved quarterback room this year with Hornsby and Finley. 

Kinne has been talking about ever since getting hired how much he wants the team to push the tempo of the game. All of their practices have emphasized playing as fast as they can. I expect them to be moving at a very quick pace here in game one.

Baylor's offense should be too much for a weak Texas State defense. The defensive line and linebackers are both badly outmanned here. Texas State is going to struggle on defense even in the Sun Belt, and Baylor should be able to put up a big number on them in this one. 

The Baylor defense wasn't elite last year, and on paper they are less talented this year. Baylor is weak in the secondary and Texas State will look to go vertical quite a bit this year. I won't be surprised if Texas State hits some big gainers on Baylor here.

This number has been pulled down because of the new rules, but I think the pace will be very quick here and I like the value on this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams have new offensive coordinators. Both coordinators are expected to push the pace.

Cal has the same head coach, but Justin Wilcox is on the hot seat and he decided he needed to switch things up and get rid of the antiquated offense. Jake Spavital was brought in to completely change things up on offense. Cal will play much quicker and look to take more shots down the field. The team upgraded at both wide receiver and tight end in the offseason. We don't know who will be the starting quarterback, but I think they have three pretty decent options. 

North Texas got Chandler Rogers to transfer in from UL Monroe. He may start or it could be Jace Ruder or possibly even Stone Earle. The Mean Green have three guys who are capable. Eric Morris was hired as the new head coach this year, and Morris will call the plays here. In the scrimmages this team has played significantly faster and they have thrown the ball much more. 

The Mean Green defense switched to a 3-3-5, but I don't like their secondary. Running a 3-3-5 with a weak secondary can lead to a lot of big plays given up. Cal's defense has good linebackers, but overall they aren't nearly as strong on defense as they were a few years ago.

This one has been bet down below the key number of 56, and I'm going to side with the over. I expect the tempo to stay very quick in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a meeting of the number one and number two offenses in baseball for the season based on weighted on base average (wOBA). This is a low total considering how good both of these offenses are and how consistently they have performed. 

Max Fried is a good pitcher, but he'll be up against a Dodgers lineup that has been crushing lefties in the last month. Fried has five starts back from injury and his ERA is 3.58. In four of those five games he has faced a weak offense.

Julio Urias has a 4.41 ERA and a 4.43 FIP this season. The Braves are easily first in the majors against left handed pitching. Atlanta is very good against righties too, but they are even better against lefties.

Both lineups are deep and these pitchers should have to work with a lot of runners on base here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans host the Central Michigan Chippewas on Friday night. Michigan State's defense is unique because they are very strong against the run, but terrible in the secondary. That makes this a good matchup for the defense. Central Michigan has one of the worst passing attacks in the country. The Chippewas will want to run it, but I think the Spartans defensive front will be too strong. 

Central Michigan's offense should be one of the worst in the MAC this year, but their defense is above average. They have a lot of veteran in the front seven on defense. Michigan State also has very little passing game, and the Spartans are going to want to run the football a lot.

With the new clock rules- a game between two teams looking to run the football a lot will really move much quicker.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals start Patrick Corbin here. Corbin isn't a good left handed pitcher anymore. He is prone to both the long ball and being quite wild. The Toronto Blue Jays are 7th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. It is a tough matchup for Corbin. 

The Blue Jays scoring outputs have been relatively low in the last 14 days, but their batting average on balls in play has been an abysmal .244. That will regress positively toward the mean. Corbin is giving up a ton of hard contact too.

Chris Bassitt is a middle of the road type pitcher. Bassitt has allowed 4 runs in three of his last five starts. The Nationals have been a feisty bunch here of late, and Abrams and Thomas are tough at the top of the order.

This total is set quite low for a game with a poor lefty against a strong lineup. Washington's bullpen has the single worst FIP in all of baseball for the season too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox meet in Boston on Monday. These two teams just met in Houston this past week. The four game series saw games with combined totals of 13, 10, 12, and 18 runs. 

Houston and Boston both rank in the top nine in baseball in weighted on base average in the last 14 and last 30 days. These two offenses have been rolling of late. Houston is averaging 7 runs per game in their last 7 contests. The Red Sox have scored six runs or more in six of their last ten games, and they haven't scored less than three runs in any of those games.

Cristian Javier has been terrible of late. Javier has a 6.25 ERA and a 6.12 FIP in his last eight starts. The team has provided him huge run support in many of these recent games. Chris Sale has come back from injury and been shaky. Sale isn't pitching deep into games, and I don't trust the Boston bullpen either.

Both offenses should get plenty of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have a very talented offense. Hank Bachmeier transferred in from Boise State, and he gives this team a big upgrade at quarterback. 

Last year, FIU beat LA Tech in double overtime 42-34. LA Tech had a third and fourth string quarterback under center for that game. This time around LA Tech has a very solid quarterback under center. He is also surrounded by very good skill position weapons. Smoke Harris is a star on the outside and on kick returns. The offensive line returns intact and should be improved. FIU's defense is overmatched in this one.

The LA Tech defense allowed 6.12 yards per carry last year. That is just insane. FIU isn't that good offensively, but they do return their quarterback in James. The other thing that helps in a game like this for the over is FIU's willingness to take shots down the field and to go for it on 4th down. That is a clear positive for the over. 

The weather here is interesting. It is going to be very hot and humid on Saturday in Ruston. This game starting at night makes it a bit cooler, but gametime temperature is set to be in the upper 80's with high humidity as well. All trends show that heat has been a clear net positive for more scoring in college football in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chris Flexen is in terrible form this year. Flexen has a 7.74 ERA and a 7.01 FIP. He is walking 4.09 batters per nine innings. He is giving up a ridiculous 2.63 home runs per nine innings on the season thus far. Walking a bunch of guys and giving up hard contact and home runs is a bad combination at Coors Field.

Dylan Cease is certainly capable of pitching very well. Cease has been up and down in a big way this year. The Rockies have scored 25 runs in the first two games of this series, and they hit pretty well at home.

The weather in this one calls for 98 degrees and winds blowing out to left field at about 12 mph. Overs are 115-82 (58.4%) at Coors Field with the wind blowing out to left field. A temperature near 100 degrees is a positive for run scoring as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense hasn't been what it was before the All Star break. Cincinnati was great offensively in June and early July. Since the All Star break, the Reds are 26th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Reds are striking out at the 4th highest rate in the majors during that time. Chris Bassitt is a decent pitcher who has a 3.63 ERA and a 3.91 FIP in his last ten starts.

Brandon Williamson starts for the Reds here. Williamson has a 3.65 ERA and a 3.99 FIP in his last ten starts. He has actually been better at Great American Ballpark than he has away from home. 

This is a hitters park, but the temperatures here aren't as hot as normal for this time of the year. The temperature will be in the upper 70's with a slight breeze in from center field for much of the game.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire. The under 16-5 in his 21 games behind home plate this year. His strikeout/walk rate over the last few years shows he is a great strike caller. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves offense is setting records for the season, and they are absolutely on fire of late. Atlanta has scored six runs or more in five straight games. They have scored six runs or more in 11 of their last 13 games. In the other two games they scored 4 and 5 runs. The production has been absolutely amazing. This is a deep lineup that is a pitcher's nightmare. 

Luis Severino has an 8.06 ERA and a 6.64 FIP on the season. Severino has been even worse of late allowing 18 runs in his last 9 innings. Now, he goes to face the best offense in the majors. 

Bryce Elder started the season very well, but the wheels have been coming off of late. Elder has a 7.94 ERA and a 6.20 FIP in his last six starts. He has walked 12 and only struck out 17 during that time. 

The Yankees offense has warmed up quite a bit in recent weeks.

The total here is very high, but I don't think it is quite high enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Seattle goes to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Monday night. 

Brady Singer started the year out pitching very poorly, but the young right hander has really turned it around of late for the Royals. Singer has a 5.05 ERA for the year and 4.00 FIP. In his last five starts since the All Star break, Singer has a 2.94 ERA and a 3.29 FIP. He has just 5 walks and 31 strikeouts in those five starts. 

Logan Gilbert is a really solid starter. Gilbert has a 2.58 ERA in his last seven starts. He has only five walks during that time. He is allowing less than one home run per nine innings as well.

Two underrated starting pitchers and a total at the key number of nine here. I like this one to stay under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants offense ranks 29th out of 30 in baseball in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Giants are a bit banged up right now, and the offense is really struggling badly. Dane Dunning is a decent starting pitcher who flies under the radar often. Dunning has a 3.21 ERA and a 4.06 FIP on the season. 

Logan Webb is a good starter who has great splits when pitching at home in his pitcher friendly home park. Webb has a 2.23 ERA at home this year and a .262 wOBA allowed. Webb has a 2.81 career ERA when pitching in San Francisco.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. He has a very long history of being an under umpire. His strikes called percentages are consistently among the highest in the league. He's a top three under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros offense is heating up as they have gotten healthy. Houston is averaging 7 runs per game in their last five contests. The Angels pitching staff has been really bad of late, and their already weak bullpen has been overused. Houston should be able to take advantage in this one with Tyler Anderson pitching. In 69 plate appearances, the Houston lineup has an amazing .480 weighted on base average against Anderson. 

JP France starts here for the Astros. France has been very fortunate so far this season. He has a 2.75 ERA but a 4.40 xERA and a 4.15 FIP. France is carrying an ultra high strand rate which can't be sustainable in the long run. The Angels still have a pretty good offense with a lot of pop.

These two bullpens rank second and third worst in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. The Angels have been very weak all year, and the Astros have been worse in the bullpen in recent weeks.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves offense is in a different class from the rest of baseball. They have been extremely consistent on offense throughout the season. Atlanta has the perfect mixture of guys who get on base and big sluggers to knock them in. The Braves have seen 7 of their last 8 games get past this posted total.

The New York Mets have seen five of their last nine games go above this posted total. Tylor Megill starts for the Mets here and he has a 5.45 ERA and a 6.27 xERA. Megill is a subpar pitcher who the Braves should get to quickly here. 

Charlie Morton has a 3.86 ERA and a 4.09 FIP. He clearly isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Morton also has been bad against this Mets lineup. They have a .347 weighted on base average against him in 147 plate appearances. 

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins haven't been good against right handed pitching all year. Miami is 20th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the season. The Marlins have tailed off offensively in general over the last month. They sit at 23rd in the league in wOBA in the last 30 days. 

The Cincinnati Reds offense is 25th in wOBA in the last 30 days. The team is striking out at a very high rate. The youngsters of this team have been more inconsistent of late. The team is missing both Jake Fraley and Jonathan India who are injured. 

Johnny Cueto starts against his former team here. Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds. Ashcraft has been pitching much better over his last six starts. 

For an August afternoon in Cincinnati, the weather isn't too hot. A temperature of 82 degrees for this one. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last 3 years (average). Miller is a big help to an under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers offense is a bottom six or eight offense in baseball. Pablo Lopez is a far better than average right handed pitcher. Lopez has a great .196 weighted on base average allowed against the Tigers lineup. Lopez has been in good form coming into this one and the advanced metrics suggest he is due for positive regression as we move forward. 

Joey Wentz hasn't been very good this year, but the Minnesota Twins have been terrible against left handed pitching. In fact, Minnesota is second to last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Wentz has a solid .264 wOBA allowed in 49 plate appearances against the Twins. 

Both offenses in an unfavorable split here and there will be chances for the starters to take care of business. Seven of the last ten games between these two teams have stayed under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tarik Skubal starts for the Tigers in this one. Skubal has a 4.57 ERA and a 2.22 xERA and a 1.33 FIP in five starts this year. Skubal has an extremely low left on base rate of just 50% and opponents have a .340 batting average on balls in play against him. Skubal is a talented starter who is due for positive regression. Skubal hasn't allowed a run at home this year, and he has a .126 wOBA allowed in 13 innings pitched at home on the season. 

Aaron Civale has faced this Tigers lineup a bunch of times. In the past, it has been as a member of the Cleveland Guardians. Civale now starts for the Tampa Bay Rays, and his past history against the Tigers is strong. Civale has allowed a wOBA of only .275 against the Tigers lineup in his career. 

In the last 30 days, Tampa Bay ranks 24th in the league in overall wOBA. The offense has been relatively cold. The Tigers offense ranks 27th in wOBA during that time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Mercury will be without Brittany Griner for this one. Griner is their second most efficient offensive player and their leading scorer. She averages more than 18 points per game. The two times these two teams have played this season Griner has scored 29 and 22 points. Griner is just 10th in defensive efficiency on the Mercury team.

NaLyssa Smith is out for this game for Indiana. She averages more than 15 points per game. The Fever are significant favorites here, but they haven't scored more than 83 points in regulation in any of their last seven games.

The Mercury have scored 72 points or fewer in five of their last eight games. 

These two teams play at the slowest and second slowest pace in the entire WNBA. This game should be played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Luis Castillo and Merrill Kelly have been very solid all year long. These are two right handed starting pitchers who often go deep into the game. Neither of these guys give opponents free passes very often.

Castillo has been quite a bit better in the second half of the season in his career. Kelly has been very good in day games during his career.

These two offenses have been very inconsistent this year. Both of them are prone to going through cold stretches. I see this as a tough matchup for both of them. It's a Sunday get away day game where sometimes we see a key bat or two out of the lineup.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins offense has broke out of late. Minnesota Twins are third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Twins have had several underachievers break out in the last couple weeks. 

The Kansas City Royals offense hasn't been very good, but the Royals bullpen has been the single worst bullpen in the majors in terms of SIERA in the last 30 days. This bullpen is overworked and they are struggling badly of late. 

Brady Singer has had a very disappointing season this year. He is giving up too much hard contact and has allowed too many big innings. 

The weather here is drastic too. A game time temperature of 98 degrees with winds of about 14 mph and gusts to 28 mph blowing out toward center field. 

In Kansas City, games with a temperature of 90 degrees or higher and winds blowing out at 6 mph or more are 32-14 in the last 46 contests.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* George Kirby has a 3.32 ERA at home in his career. Kirby has a 3.31 ERA on the road in his career. Kirby is averaging less than one walk per nine innings. No one in the majors has better control than Kirby. He also averages less than one home run per nine innings. He is a very solid young pitcher. 

Pablo Lopez has a 4.22 ERA and a 3.22 xERA and a 3.40 FIP. He is due for positive regression. Lopez is averaging 11.24 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a better pitcher than he has shown so far this season. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He is my single favorite under umpire in the majors. He has a ridiculous 3.98 strikeout/walk ratio this year. The under is 8-2 in his games with a total of 8 or higher. He has a very good long term track record of a high called strike percentage. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Over* The Cincinnati Reds start Luke Weaver here. Weaver has been terrible all season long. Weaver has an ERA above 7 and his FIP is nearly 6. He has an ERA just north of 8 when pitching at Great American Ballpark. Here he is pitching at Great American Ballpark on a warm summer day where the ball should be flying well. Arizona is a very good lineup against right handed pitching, and I would expect them to get to Weaver early and often here.

Jose Ruiz is expected to be the opener for a bullpen game for Arizona here. The DBacks bullpen isn't particularly deep either. Cincinnati's offense has woke up again in the last few games after a temporary slump. The Reds young lineup is a strong one and this is the second best hitters ballpark in the majors. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kevin Gausman has a 3.13 ERA and a stellar 1.29 FIP in his last four starts. He has 5 walks and 32 strikeouts in that four game span. Gausman has really pitched well this year, and he is throwing the best he has all year in his recent starts. Gausman has a 3.60 career ERA in day games vs. a 4.01 ERA in night games. 

Logan Gilbert has a 2.33 ERA and a 2.58 FIP in his last four starts overall. Gilbert has a 3.39 day games ERA compared to a 4.02 ERA in night games. 

This is a day game in Seattle, and it is a battle between two pitchers with elite stuff who have been putting it all together of late.

Toronto has seen 5 of their last 9 games stay under this total. Seattle has seen 6 of their last 10 games stay under this low total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has cooled off drastically of late. Tampa Bay has only scored more than 4 runs twice in their last ten games. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in weighted on base average in the majors in the last 30 days. They are up against a good young pitcher in Kyle Bradish. He has a 2.28 ERA and a 2.79 FIP in his last eight starts. Bradish has a 1.41 ERA in his last six starts. 

Zach Eflin has been really good this year for Tampa Bay. Eflin has been superb at home. He has a 2.34 ERA at home, and he has held opponents to a .240 wOBA at home as well. Eflin has zero walks in his last four starts compared to 21 strikeouts. The Orioles are a good offense, but they are better against lefties than righties.

These are two good bullpens who have a good chance of pitching well late in the game too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bailey Ober has been tremendous all season. He has been at his best when pitching on the road. Ober has a stellar .216 wOBA allowed and a 2.01 ERA on the road thus far this season. Even at this low total, 11 of his 14 games have stayed under this total (one went over solely because of extra innings too). 

Bryan Woo has been really good for the Mariners. Woo has an extremely high 11.16 strikeouts per nine innings rate. He has multiple put away pitches, and the Twins have been striking out at a pretty high clip.

Both teams have deep and solid bullpens and they should be ready to go in this one. 

Muchlinski is a pretty good under umpire and Seattle is still a top five pitchers park in the majors. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros are without both Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley. That's a significant hit to the lineup. The Los Angeles Angels are without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. That's also a huge hit to the lineup. 

Framber Valdez has been the best starter for the Astros this year. He's a very good lefty who can mix up his pitches well. Valdez has a stellar .267 wOBA against the Angels lineup. 

Reid Detmers had a bad outing in his last start, but that was against the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers make a lot of pitchers look bad. Before that game, Detmers had five straight starts with two runs or less allowed. Detmers has a very solid 3.78 FIP on the season. Detmers has pretty good numbers against most of the Astros hitters.

Corey Blaser is the home plate umpire here, and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 42-26 in his last 68 games behind the plate. He has a strikes called percentage clearly high than the league average too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets dropped a 3-1 game to the Padres on Saturday night. On this final contest of the first half of the season, I like this game to stay low scoring as well.

It's a pitching matchup of Max Scherzer vs. Joe Musgrove. Both of these guys have fantastic numbers in their respective careers against the opposing offense. Scherzer has allowed a very low weighted on base average (wOBA) of .242 in 204 plate appearances for this Padres lineup. Musgrove has a very good .282 wOBA allowed against this Mets lineup. 

Scherzer isn't what he was several years ago, but he still has great strikeout stuff and he has a history of pitching better in day games. Musgrove has been fantastic in his last eight starts. He has a 2.01 ERA and a 2.52 FIP in those games.

Both offenses have been inconsistent and this is a tough matchup for them.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds are second in the majors in weighted on base average in the last month. This is an offense that is very hard to quiet on a consistent basis. Joey Votto has started producing nicely again of late. The youngsters are fantastic with De La Cruz, Steer, Friedl, and McClain really shining. Cincinnati is aggressive on the bases, and it has paid off most of the time. The Reds were quieted by Corbin Burnes last night, but Colin Rea doesn't have nearly the stuff Burnes does.

Luke Weaver has been very weak this year. He's gotten great run support, but Weaver has been hit around hard. Weaver is in the 10th percentile in expected batting average allowed out of all pitchers in the majors. He is in the 18th percentile in strikeout percentage. He has an ERA above 12 in the first inning. The Reds bullpen has been overworked of late as well. Milwaukee has scored six runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The weather forecast calls for 91 degrees and a very slight breeze blowing out at Nationals Park on Thursday afternoon. The heat has really helped the over at this park. Nationals Park has seen 102 overs and 73 unders with temperatures of 85 degrees or higher. This one certainly fits that bill.

Brandon Williamson has an ERA over 5 and an xERA over 6. He has had issues throwing strikes in the minors and he has given up the home run ball far too often in the majors. 

Mackenzie Gore has been sidelined with a finger injury. Gore is back for this game, and he faces a Reds offense that has been on fire. In the last 30 days, only one offense has been better than the Reds in weighted on base average (the Braves). Cincinnati's youngsters are hitting the ball really well. This has suddenly become a deep lineup that excels against lefties.

Both pitchers have been very shaky and the conditions are prime for scoring. Manny Gonzalez is behind home plate and he is a solid over umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros offense has come alive in a big way of late. Houston has 63 runs in their last nine games (7 runs per game on average). They have scored 10 runs or more in three of their last six games. Houston is better against lefties and they face a lefty in Kyle Freeland in this game. Freeland has to go through several red hot right handed hitters who are at their best against southpaws. 

Brandon Bielak starts for the Astros here, and he hasn't been good. Bielak has a 4.37 ERA and a 5.67 FIP. He has allowed 10 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Astros bullpen is gassed right now, and Bielak isn't very likely to pitch deep into the game. The Rockies offense is bad against lefties, but they have been a top 12 offense against right handers. 

I expect both teams to get plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks and LA Angels meet in LA on Sunday afternoon. Zac Gallen is clearly one of the best right handed starting pitchers in the majors. Gallen has been a bit inconsistent at times, but he has been really good in two of his last three starts. Gallen has a 3.02 ERA and a 2.74 FIP on the year.

Reid Detmers is the guy who most people don't realize is coming a very solid starting pitcher. Detmers has a 1.05 ERA and a 2.58 FIP in his last four starts. Detmers is up against an Arizona lineup that has been far better against right handed pitching than lefties. Detmers is an up and coming good lefty.

Doug Eddings is behind the plate for this one. Eddings is clearly a top two or three under umpire in baseball. He consistently has some of the very highest strikeout/walk ratios and strikes called percentages. He has those again this year and the under is 9-4 in his games behind the plate.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have the third highest weighted on base average in Major League Baseball in the last 14 days. They have been putting up some big numbers. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McClain, Spencer Steer and all the youngsters in this lineup have been contributing in a big way. Now, the Reds come home to the second most hitter friendly ballpark in the majors. 

Graham Ashcraft has been terrible of late for the Reds. Ashcraft has a 12.62 ERA in his last six games. He has been much worse at home throughout his career. San Diego's lineup has been inconsistent, but they should get a lot of scoring chances here.

Seth Lugo is a mediocre pitcher, and I expect him to have a lot of traffic on the bases here too.

A game time temperature of 91 degrees with a very slight breeze blowing out means the conditions here are great for runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Red Sox have gotten a bit banged up, and their offense has really struggled of late. Yoshida has missed the last two games, and he is questionable for this one. Boston has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last six games. 

Jesus Luzardo is a young pitcher with great stuff. He has a 3.77 ERA and a 3.42 FIP on the season. Luzardo has just 7 walks and 55 strikeouts in his last eight starts. 

Brayan Bello starts for the Red Sox. He has really rounded into form of late. In his last five starts, he has a 2.35 ERA and a 2.60 FIP. Bello was a very highly touted prospect, and he seems to be figuring it out. 

While both teams have been slightly above average on offense in the last 14 days, they are 1st and 3rd in the majors in batting average on balls in play. Miami is at .355 and Boston at .339 during that time. Those numbers will regress toward the mean. 

Stu Scheurwater is the home plate umpire in this one, and he has a very high strikeout/walk ratio which suggests he is helpful to the pitcher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the Cincinnati Reds and the Baltimore Orioles are above average for the season when it comes to weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Both of these teams have been red hot offensively of late in general too.

Cincinnati has scored 5 runs or more in 11 of their last 12 games. The Reds young nucleus of hitters has turned this into a really deep lineup with a rare combination of speed and power. Elly De La Cruz gets much of the attention and it is well deserved, but Matt McClain and Spencer Steer are stars as well. Joey Votto has looked good in his first week back in the majors too.

The Reds pitching staff is badly shorthanded now with injuries. Brandon Williamson has an ERA above 5 and has been allowing far too many baserunners. 

The Orioles start Cole Irvin here. Irvin has a 7.71 ERA and his xERA is even higher at 8.91. His FIP is 5.41. He is clearly a below average left hander. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays are first in the majors in weighted on base average. The Rays have worked the count consistently on starters and gotten to the bullpen in early. 

Kansas City starts Daniel Lynch and then the bullpen behind him is very weak. Lynch is a lefty who has had quite a bit of trouble keeping the ball in the park. The Rays should get to him.

Tyler Glasnow starts for the Rays. He's clearly not himself and he has been working from behind in the count too often.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He has the lowest strike/walk ratio of any umpire in the majors in the last five years. He's a clear help to the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have won 12 straight games. It's thanks in large part to their offensive explosions of late led by a bunch of great youngsters. De La Cruz, McClain, Steer, and company have been fantastic. They are now getting a big boost from Joey Votto now that he is back in the lineup. This is clearly an above average lineup now. 

The Atlanta Braves have the best lineup in baseball in my opinion. This is a deep lineup that is excellent against both right handers and left handers. They hit for both power and average. Atlanta has scored 8 runs or more in six of their last nine games. They have scored 10 runs or more in three of their last five. 

The Reds have scored 8 runs or more in four of their last six games. Cincinnati is up against a mediocre lefty in Shuster in this one.

Ashcraft has been the Reds worst pitcher of late. He has ugly splits at home in his career.

A high temperature of 87 degrees and winds blowing out at 6 mph are a help too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals have a .310 OBP against right handed pitching. They have a .335 OBP against left handed pitching. They are up against a mediocre left hander in Tommy Henry here. In limited action against him, the Nationals have hit him well. 

Jake Irvin starts here for the Nationals. Irvin is one of my lowest rated starting pitchers in the majors. Irvin ranks in the bottom 6% of all pitchers in walk rate. He also ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in whiff rate. That's a really bad combination. 

The Nationals are 7th in wOBA at home this year. The DBacks are 3rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

I think both teams will see plenty of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers start Freddy Peralta here. Peralta has drastic home/road splits in his career. Peralta has a career WHIP of 1.024 at home and a WHIP of 1.329 on the road. His ERA is 3.50 in day games in his career as well. He faces a Pirates team that has been much stronger especially of late against left handed pitching. The Pirates have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. 

Luis Ortiz is an inconsistent starter. He is certainly capable of getting hit hard, but the upside is very real too. Ortiz has been wild so far this year and that has hurt him quite a bit. He should be helped a lot by home plate umpire Doug Eddings. 

Eddings has consistently been a top two or three under umpire in baseball for many years. In Eddings last 68 Sunday games behind home plate (get away type games in many cases with early starts) the under is 46-22. His strikes called percentage is very high annually. He should help both pitchers here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather in this game calls for wind blowing in about 12-15 mph from left center field. That should be a nice boost at Citi Field, which is already ranking in the top 5 pitcher's parks in the majors this year according to park factors.

Kodai Senga has a 1.93 ERA and a .250 weighted on base average allowed at home on the year. The Cardinals offense has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five. The bottom of their order has really been holding them back in a big way.

Adam Wainwright is far from the pitcher he once was, but the Mets offense is definitely a level worse without Pete Alonso in the middle of the order.

Home plate umpire Shane Livensparger's games are 30-18 to the under in the last couple seasons. He has a high strikeout/walk ratio of 3.03 so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox are 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Seattle Mariners are 22nd out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Michael Kopech started the year pitching poorly, but he has really coming into his own of late. In his last five starts, Kopech has 5 walks and 44 strikeouts. He has a 1.72 ERA and a 2.57 FIP in those five starts.

Bryan Woo was very good in the minors and he is coming off a good start against the Angels. Woo is backed by a good bullpen for Seattle.

This is a top three or four pitcher's park in the majors. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Cole has a 2.64 ERA and a 3.69 FIP. Cole has fantastic numbers against the Mets lineup. How good? Cole has a .242 weighted on base average against the current Mets players in 107 plate appearances. 

Justin Verlander has been really inconsistent this season. He has either been great or terrible. Verlander is coming off a really poor start against the Braves. I think this is a good bounce back spot for him.

Both Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso are out with injuries right now. Those are the two best offensive players in this matchup.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire. He has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Miller is calling more than 66% of pitches a strike this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. While JP Sears isn't an excellent lefty by any means, he is a a young lefty with good stuff and high potential. The Brewers could find it tough going against him on Sunday. 

Freddy Peralta has drastic home/road splits. Peralta has 3.41 ERA at home and an ERA over 6 on the road this year. He's also against an Oakland A's offense that is dreadful against right handed pitching. I like Peralta's chances of getting back on track in this one. The Brewers bullpen is still an above average one too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Angels start Patrick Sandoval in this one. Sandoval can be dominant at times, but he does have some poor games as well. In this one, I do like the matchup for him. Sandoval has a good history against the Seattle batters he has faced through his career thus far. Importantly, Seattle is 27th in wOBA against left handed pitching on the season. The Mariners have the fourth worst strikeout percentage against lefties too, and Sandoval is a high strikeout type lefty starter.

Woo starts for the Mariners. There isn't a long history on him and he appears to be an average prospect for the Mariners. The Angels are a bit shorthanded in the lineup right now. LA is a much better team against lefties than righties as well.

Phil Cuzzi is a top five under umpire in the majors. He consistently has had extremely high strikeout/walk ratios of 3 or higher. So far this year 9 of his 11 games behind the plate have stayed under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Cleveland is second worst in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Cristian Javier is one of the better right handed pitchers in the American League. Javier has great control and his curveball is a major weapon. 

Logan Allen is a highly rated youngster for Cleveland. The left handed Allen has a 2.76 ERA and a solid 3.22 FIP. The Astros are a talented lineup, but they are likely to be without Yordan Alvarez here after he was injured early in last night's game. Houston has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games.

These two of the top eight bullpens in baseball. It should be tough to get a lot of scoring chances in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game two went over the total because both teams shot the ball lights out. It still only finished at 219 points. The Heat made 17 three pointers and the Nuggets shot 52% from the floor. Miami scored a ridiculous 1.291 points per possession and the Nuggets scored an above average 1.241 points per possession. 

The pace of the game was a very slow 86.5 possessions. Miami has clearly decided to try their best to slow the pace of this series down. It worked in game two. They'll likely do it again here, and I don't think we can assume the shots will keep falling at this rate either.

This is pivotal game for both teams. It was assumed the Nuggets were going to roll to a win after game one and the first half of game two. Denver did some sleepwalking on defense in the fourth quarter of Game 2. I wouldn't think that will happen again. The Heat are an above average defense and they have decided to let Jokic score and try to cut down on his assists.

I like this one to be a tighter lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals offense has been really good against left handed pitching this year. Washington is 4th in the majors in OBP at .356 against lefties. Tommy Henry has a 3.73 ERA, but a 5.21 FIP on the season. Henry has allowed just a .244 BABIP so far this year. He isn't likely to be able to keep that up. Henry ranks in the bottom ten percent of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate too.

Washington starts Jake Irvin here, and I believe he is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Irvin has a 5.67 ERA and a 5.80 FIP on the season. He ranks in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in the majors in whiff rate. His xERA is 5.99. The Diamondbacks have had a top eight offense against right handed pitching all year.

Washington's bullpen is bottom three in the majors. Arizona's bullpen is worse than an average bullpen as well.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's offense is just terrible. Oakland has scored two runs or fewer in 12 of their last 14 games. Oakland is decent against left handed pitching, but they are awful against right handed pitching. No other team is even close to as weak as Oakland's lineup against right handed pitching. 

Eury Perez is a very highly touted prospect for the Marlins. He's a tall right hander with overpowering stuff who should rack up the strikeouts in the big leagues in his career. Perez gets a favorable matchup here.

Medina starts for the A's here. While his numbers aren't good thus far, he has pitched pretty well in the minors as well. He has a small sample size in the majors and was hit hard by the Astros and Angels, two very good lineups who are clearly several notches better than the Miami lineup. 

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. He is clearly a top two or three under umpire. His called strikes rate and strikeout/walk rate are consistently among the very highest in the majors. He should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have been very good offensively against left handed pitching, but they are a bottom eight offense against right handed pitching. The San Diego Padres offense has really disappointed this year. They strike out too much, and they are up against a very good strikeout pitcher in Jesus Lazardo in this one. Luzardo is striking out 10.27 batters per nine innings and he has a 3.67 ERA and a 3.68 FIP. 

Joe Musgrove doesn't have the fantastic numbers he had last year thus far, but the advanced metrics suggest improvement is coming. Musgrove has a 5.64 ERA and a 3.69 xERA. He is in the 84th percentile according to Baseball Savant in average exit velocity allowed. He has very good control. In 79 plate appearances, this Marlins lineup has an xWOBA of just .271 against Musgrove. 

It's a get away day game and that could mean a key bat or two out of the lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds are 11th in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Cincinnati's offense has been terrific of late. The Reds have scored 8 runs or more in four straight games and in five of their last six. 

James Paxton was hit hard in his last game, and he is still working his way back from injury. The Red Sox bullpen isn't deep.

Luke Weaver has a 5.41 ERA and a 5.29 FIP. He's up against one of the best offenses in baseball here. The Red Sox have been particularly good offensively on their home field. The Reds middle relief is a big weakness and Weaver could struggle to pitch deep into this one.

Fenway Park is a place where the weather matters a lot. The forecast calls for 70 degrees and 10 mph winds blowing out toward left and center field during this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Michael Kopech had fantastic stuff before injuries derailed his career for a couple years. He was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Kopech has now thrown two absolute gems in a row. He has thrown 15 innings in his last two starts. In those 15 IP- he has allowed just 3 hits and 0 runs. He has walked one batter and struck out 19. Kopech has allowed 2 runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Griffin Canning is an inconsistent pitcher, but he has a high upside and he showed that in his last start. 

Both the Angels and White Sox are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. In fact, Chicago is a dreadful 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.

The under is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-2 in the White Sox last 7 vs. a right handed starter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Yu Darvish against Gerrit Cole is a good pitching matchup in New York. 

San Diego is 23rd in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the year. This Padres lineup just hasn't been very good all season. San Diego relies a lot on walks, and Cole has good control. He also has a very favorable home plate umpire here. 

The Yankees are 19th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. New York's depth has really been tested by their injuries. Darvish is still capable of missing a lot of bats. 

Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He has an insanely high 3.82 strikeout/walk ratio this year. He definitely likes to ring up batters.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have gotten back in this series with their defense. Boston has turned up the pressure defensively. Miami is an above average defensive team, and for the majority of the season they were a below average offense.

In Game 5, the game finished at just 207 points despite the two teams shooting the ball well. In fact, they averaged 1.25 and 1.115 points per possession in that game. The pace was just 87.5 possessions in that game. That was the slowest paced game in the series.

In the NBA playoffs, as the games get bigger the pace generally slows down. The stakes are massive for this game. Boston is in a win or go home spot, and yet you could argue the pressure has shifted back onto Miami. They don't want any part of this series getting evened up at 3 and going back to Boston. No NBA team has blown a 3-0 series lead. They certainly don't want to be the first.

This total has been adjusted down a bit, but I don't think it is enough. This should play out like a game where both teams feel their backs are up against the wall in a must win spot. 

Malcolm Brogdon is banged up for the Celtics and Gabe Vincent is injured for the Heat too. Those guys had been key offensive contributors down the stretch.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been the best in baseball so far this year. Tampa Bay has been consistently excellent all year. They have scored six runs or more in three of their last four games and six of their last ten games.

Noah Syndergaard is far from what he was a few years ago before the injuries. He now doesn't miss many bats and is giving up a lot of hard contact.

The Dodgers will go against opener Jalen Beeks and then Cooper Criswell here. Beeks is a mediocre lefty. The Dodgers have a very unlucky .227 batting average on balls in play against lefties. They are due for positive regression against lefties. Criswell is a right hander who has looked very shaky in his first three big league appearances. Los Angeles has a deep lineup that has caught fire of late. The Dodgers have scored five runs or more in seven of their last eight games. 

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners are third worst in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. While JP Sears does have some weaknesses, he has great control and is a tough matchup for the Mariners. Sears is on a bad team, but I do like his potential for the long term.

Logan Gilbert is a much above average right handed pitcher. Guess which team is last in wOBA against right handed pitching in the majors? The Oakland A's, and it isn't even close. 

Oakland has scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. I don't think they will score many here either. 

Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire here. The under is 39-26 in his last three years behind home plate. He carries a top ten strikeout/walk ratio out of all umpires in the big leagues.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have been the worst offense in the majors so far this year. Cleveland lacks consistency in the lineup. The Guardians have a star in Jose Ramirez, but they haven't surrounded him with enough help. 

The Chicago White Sox offense is just mediocre. Chicago has lost a lot of key pieces in recent years from their lineup.

Michael Kopech had the best outing of his career in the White Sox last game. Kopech has a sub 4 ERA if you discount his first start of the year. Kopech was a really highly touted pitcher who is coming back from some major injury issues.

Cal Quantrill has a good history against the White Sox, and Quantrill has in general been a guy who does a good job not issuing free passes.

Lentz is the home plate umpire here and he has had an above average strikes called rate and a high strikeout/walk ratio. 

The weather calls for a steady breeze blowing in at about 12-14 mph during this game. The wind in angles have been strong in Cleveland home games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox are second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Boston has deep lineup with guys who can work the count quite a bit and get on base. Michael Wacha is middle of the road right handed pitcher. Wacha lacks that dominant pitch to strike guys out with.

Corey Kluber was once an excellent pitcher who could dominate on a consistent basis. Kluber is nothing like he was a few years ago. Kluber has a 6.41 ERA and a 6.63 FIP on the season. He has given up a ton of hard hit balls on the season. He just isn't fooling people like he did in the past. The Padres offense does have the lowest batting average on balls in play in the majors against right handed pitching, so they should get better in this category.

Mark Wegner is behind home plate, and Wegner is one of the better over umpires in baseball. He consistently has one of the lowest called strike percentages of any umpire. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Patrick Sandoval has turned himself into a good left handed starting pitcher. Sandoval has an elite curveball, and he has improved his command of the rest of his pitches in the past year. Sandoval has a 3.22 ERA and a 3.99 FIP on the season thus far. 

The Minnesota Twins rank 25th in the majors in weighted on base average away from home. Minnesota is also 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA against lefties. This is a tough matchup for the Twins offense. 

Varland is a young pitcher with a unique delivery that can bother some hitters until they get accustomed to it. The Angels offense is good, but they aren't as deep now without Anthony Rendon.

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire here. The under is an impressive 45-17 in his last 62 games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. This young lineup has several guys who really crush left handed pitching. Kikuchi is a left hander who this Baltimore lineup has hit hard in the past. How well have they hit him? The Orioles current lineup has a .446 wOBA against Kikuchi in 73 plate appearances. It isn't a huge sample size, but it is plenty large enough to see that they have really seen him well. Kikuchi has a 3.89 ERA on the year, but his FIP is 5.46 and he has stranded a ridiculous 90.9% of base runners so far this year. He can't keep that up long term. I like the matchup for Baltimore.

Toronto is still one of the best offenses in the majors. Gibson is a really inconsistent pitcher. He is more than capable of getting hit hard in any one game. Toronto has scored four runs or more in each of their last six games against the Orioles. Toronto has a strong top of the order and Gibson tends to put too many guys on base free.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chase Silseth has a 6.59 ERA as a starter in the majors. Silseth doesn't have enough plus pitches at this point in his career to consistently get guys out over several innings. While Baltimore has slumped a bit offensively of late, the Orioles are still a pretty good lineup.

Dean Kremer has a 4.97 ERA, but his xERA is 6.93 so far this season. The Angels are a dangerous lineup. They rank top ten in the majors in all major categories. The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 12 games overall.

The weather here is favorable with a game time temperature of 75 degrees and winds blowing out to right field at 10 mph. This park is a hitters park with conditions like this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Milwaukee Brewers are terrible against left handed pitching, but they are above average against right handed pitching. Milwaukee has a .329 OBP against right handers. The Brewers are at just .278 OBP against lefties. They are up against Jack Flaherty, a right hander who is really struggling right now. Flaherty has an ERA of 9 in his last five starts. The Brewers lineup has a fantastic .401 weighted on base average against Flaherty in his career.

St. Louis' offense has come on in a big way of late. They are averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last ten contests. Freddy Peralta is a good pitcher, but the Cardinals have hit him very well in the past. Peralta has a 6.59 ERA in St. Louis. The Cardinals have a .382 wOBA against him.

This is a low total given the matchups.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Dodgers start Tony Gonsolin in this one. Gonsolin has great career numbers against the Padres. Gonsolin has a low .265 weighted on base average allowed against this Padres lineup in his career. The Padres have scored three runs or fewer in 7 of their last 10 games overall.

Ryan Weathers is no great pitcher, but he is serviceable. The Dodgers lineup is much better against right handed pitching than lefties.

This is a Sunday afternoon game and it wouldn't be a surprise if a key hitter or two misses this one. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He is a very good under umpire. He has the highest strikeout/walk ratio in the majors in the last five years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat host the New York Knicks in Game 6. The Heat have a chance to finish off this series and go to the Eastern Conference Finals. I think there is a good chance they will do so, but I'm going to back the under here.

Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have been good to under bettors. The game typically slows down a bit and the defensive intensity increases even more. These are two above average defensive teams. Both coaches are well known for being good defensive minds. 

The Knicks have been a team that is prone to scoring droughts. Jalen Brunson has been consistent, but the rest of the team has been streaky shooting the basketball. The Heat have been very good offensively in the playoffs, but I still doubt that in the long run they can continue to shoot the basketball this well against good defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Clayton Kershaw isn't what he was several years ago, but he is still a very good pitcher. Kershaw has a 2.53 ERA and a 3.30 xERA so far this year. He has 10.13 strikeouts per nine innings on the season thus far. Kershaw now faces a Brewers team that has the highest strikeout rate against left handed pitching so far this year. They are striking out at a really high 30.5% rate. Kershaw should pitch well against this lineup.

Wade Miley has been above average so far this year. He can be inconsistent, but the Dodgers rank 25th in weighted on base average against left handed pitching so far this year. 

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the last six years. Eddings is a strike caller and this is a get away day game in Milwaukee. I think the pitchers will get the edges and there could be a key bat or two missing in the lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The stats from the 76ers overtime one point win over the Celtics in Game Four are really something else. The game played to a snail's pace at 86 possessions. That's the slowest pace of any game in the NBA playoffs so far this postseason. 

Both teams shot the lights out in that game. Philly had 1.22 points per possession and Boston had 1.21 points per possession. Despite shooting the ball tremendously, the game had 214 points before overtime. Even if we assume the pace will be a bit quicker in this one (it likely will be) the teams have to shoot the ball well to get past this posted total. 

If there are 91 possessions in the game and the teams average 1.15 points per possession, that would be between 209 and 210 points. These are two top eight defenses in the league. At times Boston has shown the ability to shut the opposition completely down. I don't expect James Harden to continue to shoot the percentage he shot last game.

At 2-2 this is clearly a huge game for both teams. I expect the intensity to be there in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Charlie Morton is no longer a really good starting pitcher. Morton is fine, but he is past his prime. Morton is a few months away from turning 40. He has a 3.38 ERA, but a 5.29 xERA, 4.10 FIP, and 4.68 xFIP. He has been fortunate so far this season. The Boston lineup is a very good one. Against right handed pitching, Boston is second in the majors in weighted on base average. Boston has scored 7 runs or more in seven of their last nine games.

Nick Pivetta is a below average starting pitcher. Pivetta has been far worse through the course of his career when pitching at night. Pivetta has a 4.07 daytime ERA, but a terrible 5.49 ERA at night (and a 1.437 WHIP). The Braves lineup is one of the best in the majors, and I think he will struggle against them.

Both teams should have plenty of chances to score in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals offense started the season really slowly, but they have been excellent of late. Kansas City has scored 31 runs in their last four games. They have scored at least six runs in each of those games. 

Oakland's offense isn't good, but they have scored 7 runs or more in three of their last eight games. They are up against Brady Singer in this one. It seems like something is wrong with Singer. He ranks in the bottom one percentile of all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed and hard hit percentage allowed this season. Singer has a 8.49 ERA and a 5.05 FIP (a 7.11 xERA) and the whole season has been a struggle for him.

Ken Waldichuk starts for Oakland, and he has been very poor as well. Waldichuk has a 7.26 ERA and a 7.40 FIP in six starts on the season. The Royals have been much better against left handed pitching than righties so far this year.

The weather here calls for a temperature of around 90 degrees with the wind blowing out about 10 mph which will help the ball carry.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game One in this series saw the 76ers pull off a big upset in Boston 119-115. The Celtics defense in that game was very weak. I would expect a much stronger effort from Boston here. Boston is a top three defense in the NBA. They should be able to come up with a much better plan to slow down James Harden in Game two. 

Joel Embiid is doubtful to play in game two. The Sixers offense clicked beautifully in game one, but in game two I expect them to see much tougher resistance.

The pace of game one was just 91 possessions. The offensive efficiency numbers were off the charts in game one. The 76ers averaged 1.293 points per possession and the Celtics averaged 1.278 points per possession. 

Even if we assume the pace will be two possessions quicker than last game and then normalize the offensive efficiency to about 1.16 points per possession (still good numbers offensively) the total would be slightly under 216 points. 

I think the three point adjustment up in this totals number gives us some value to take the under in the second game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays start Alek Manoah in this one. Manoah has been in poor form so far this year. He has a 4.88 ERA and he has been fortunate at that as well. He has a FIP of 5.88 and an xFIP of 5.69. 

Nick Pivetta isn't a pitcher I trust. Pivetta has drastic day/night splits in his career. He has been much worse at night. He has a career day game ERA of 4.07 and a night ERA of 5.50. His WHIP is 1.442 at night which is really poor. Pivetta also has terrible career numbers against this Toronto lineup. A wOBA of .419 for this Blue Jays lineup in a large sample size of 164 plate appearances against Pivetta.

The Red Sox offense is rolling of late. Boston has scored 28 runs in their last four games. They have scored at least six runs in each of those contests. 

Toronto has scored 19 runs in their last three games. The Blue Jays have one of the best lineups in baseball.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's game seven of what has been the most exciting first round series in the NBA playoffs. Golden State shockingly was blown away at home in Game 6, so we are back to Sacramento for Game 7.

It is win or go home time for both teams. There is a bunch on the line in this one, and that usually means the defensive intensity picks up a bit more. The tempo is usually a bit slower. It will still be pretty fast in this matchup, but I think it will be a tick slower than the other games in the series. Many times in the past the refs will let them play a bit more in a game 7 as well, so hopefully we don't run into a ref crew that wants to make this all about them. 

Three of the six games in this series have stayed under this total even before they reached this critical game seven contest.

Game 7's in the NBA playoffs are 35-22 to the under in the last 57 with an average overall winning margin of about 5 points per game. 

It isn't easy to take an under between these two, but the long term systems have me on this under at a high number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners have hit Kevin Gausman well in the past. This Mariners lineup has a .358 weighted on base average in 78 plate appearances against Gausman. They haven't consistently shown it, but I still think this is a pretty good Seattle offense.

The Blue Jays are unquestionably one of the best offenses in the majors. Toronto has crushed Chris Flexen in the past. Flexen has allowed a .390 wOBA against this Blue Jays lineup in his career. 

Flexen has been absolutely crushed so far this year. He has a 8.86 ERA and a 6.63 FIP on the season. He has allowed 20 runs in his last 12 innings pitched. This Blue Jays lineup isn't the lineup you want to face when you are in terrible form.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are a weak offense on the whole. Miami is 25th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Marcus Stroman has a 2.17 ERA, and four of his five starts have been very good ones. 

The Cubs are 6th in wOBA against lefties, but they have an extremely high batting average on balls in play which suggests they aren't going to be able to keep this pace in the long run. Jesus Luzardo has allowed just 4 runs in 17 innings pitched at home this year.

Two above average pitchers here and I think we see a low scoring game with both pitchers going pretty deep into the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both pitchers enter this game in great form. Cease has a 2.73 ERA and a 3.68 FIP on the season. McClanahan has a 1.86 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. Both of these guys are on the short list of best pitchers in the league. 

The two offenses have been ice cold of late. Both offenses have been shutout in their last two games. The White Sox have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last seven. The Rays haven't been as good offensively on the road, and they are better against left handed pitching. In this one they are up against an elite right handed starter.

This one should be a tight low scoring contest.

Take the under.