*3 Star Play Under* Game two went over the total because both teams shot the ball lights out. It still only finished at 219 points. The Heat made 17 three pointers and the Nuggets shot 52% from the floor. Miami scored a ridiculous 1.291 points per possession and the Nuggets scored an above average 1.241 points per possession. 

The pace of the game was a very slow 86.5 possessions. Miami has clearly decided to try their best to slow the pace of this series down. It worked in game two. They'll likely do it again here, and I don't think we can assume the shots will keep falling at this rate either.

This is pivotal game for both teams. It was assumed the Nuggets were going to roll to a win after game one and the first half of game two. Denver did some sleepwalking on defense in the fourth quarter of Game 2. I wouldn't think that will happen again. The Heat are an above average defense and they have decided to let Jokic score and try to cut down on his assists.

I like this one to be a tighter lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have gotten back in this series with their defense. Boston has turned up the pressure defensively. Miami is an above average defensive team, and for the majority of the season they were a below average offense.

In Game 5, the game finished at just 207 points despite the two teams shooting the ball well. In fact, they averaged 1.25 and 1.115 points per possession in that game. The pace was just 87.5 possessions in that game. That was the slowest paced game in the series.

In the NBA playoffs, as the games get bigger the pace generally slows down. The stakes are massive for this game. Boston is in a win or go home spot, and yet you could argue the pressure has shifted back onto Miami. They don't want any part of this series getting evened up at 3 and going back to Boston. No NBA team has blown a 3-0 series lead. They certainly don't want to be the first.

This total has been adjusted down a bit, but I don't think it is enough. This should play out like a game where both teams feel their backs are up against the wall in a must win spot. 

Malcolm Brogdon is banged up for the Celtics and Gabe Vincent is injured for the Heat too. Those guys had been key offensive contributors down the stretch.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat host the New York Knicks in Game 6. The Heat have a chance to finish off this series and go to the Eastern Conference Finals. I think there is a good chance they will do so, but I'm going to back the under here.

Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have been good to under bettors. The game typically slows down a bit and the defensive intensity increases even more. These are two above average defensive teams. Both coaches are well known for being good defensive minds. 

The Knicks have been a team that is prone to scoring droughts. Jalen Brunson has been consistent, but the rest of the team has been streaky shooting the basketball. The Heat have been very good offensively in the playoffs, but I still doubt that in the long run they can continue to shoot the basketball this well against good defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The stats from the 76ers overtime one point win over the Celtics in Game Four are really something else. The game played to a snail's pace at 86 possessions. That's the slowest pace of any game in the NBA playoffs so far this postseason. 

Both teams shot the lights out in that game. Philly had 1.22 points per possession and Boston had 1.21 points per possession. Despite shooting the ball tremendously, the game had 214 points before overtime. Even if we assume the pace will be a bit quicker in this one (it likely will be) the teams have to shoot the ball well to get past this posted total. 

If there are 91 possessions in the game and the teams average 1.15 points per possession, that would be between 209 and 210 points. These are two top eight defenses in the league. At times Boston has shown the ability to shut the opposition completely down. I don't expect James Harden to continue to shoot the percentage he shot last game.

At 2-2 this is clearly a huge game for both teams. I expect the intensity to be there in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game One in this series saw the 76ers pull off a big upset in Boston 119-115. The Celtics defense in that game was very weak. I would expect a much stronger effort from Boston here. Boston is a top three defense in the NBA. They should be able to come up with a much better plan to slow down James Harden in Game two. 

Joel Embiid is doubtful to play in game two. The Sixers offense clicked beautifully in game one, but in game two I expect them to see much tougher resistance.

The pace of game one was just 91 possessions. The offensive efficiency numbers were off the charts in game one. The 76ers averaged 1.293 points per possession and the Celtics averaged 1.278 points per possession. 

Even if we assume the pace will be two possessions quicker than last game and then normalize the offensive efficiency to about 1.16 points per possession (still good numbers offensively) the total would be slightly under 216 points. 

I think the three point adjustment up in this totals number gives us some value to take the under in the second game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's game seven of what has been the most exciting first round series in the NBA playoffs. Golden State shockingly was blown away at home in Game 6, so we are back to Sacramento for Game 7.

It is win or go home time for both teams. There is a bunch on the line in this one, and that usually means the defensive intensity picks up a bit more. The tempo is usually a bit slower. It will still be pretty fast in this matchup, but I think it will be a tick slower than the other games in the series. Many times in the past the refs will let them play a bit more in a game 7 as well, so hopefully we don't run into a ref crew that wants to make this all about them. 

Three of the six games in this series have stayed under this total even before they reached this critical game seven contest.

Game 7's in the NBA playoffs are 35-22 to the under in the last 57 with an average overall winning margin of about 5 points per game. 

It isn't easy to take an under between these two, but the long term systems have me on this under at a high number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks had the 4th best defense in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency in the regular season. Miami was an average offensive team in the regular season. 

The Miami Heat have been absolutely shooting the lights out so far in this series. Miami has been torching the nets from 3 point range. Duncan Robinson is shooting 76.5% from 3 point range in this series. Jimmy Butler is shooting 53% from 3 point range in the series. Gabe Vincent is shooting 47.6% from 3 point range. Butler is fantastic and the Heat's offense has been very good, but I don't think they can keep up this ridiculous shooting. 

Milwaukee is in a win or go home situation here. The Bucks should bring the intensity in a big way here. 

Milwaukee's offense has been inconsistent and the Heat do have a strong defense. Spoelstra is a really good defensive mind.

These closeout games have been solid for under bettors in the long run, and I think the pace should slow down a bit in a game of this magnitude. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat are averaging an insane 1.244 and 1.235 points per possession in the first two games of this series. It's extremely hard to continue to shoot the ball that well, especially in the playoffs when the intensity is very high.

The Bucks and Heat are both above average defenses. Erik Spoelstra is an excellent coach, and I would expect him to have a good defensive game plan to slow down the Bucks after the Heat were awful on defense in Game Two. 

Giannis is questionable here. I do like the play whether he plays in this one or not. The Bucks have the guys to make life difficult for Jimmy Butler. 

The regular season meetings between these two teams were far lower than these two playoff games have been. I think we see some regression to the mean.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 three pointers in Game One of this series. Brooklyn shot better than 60% for the majority of the game and still lost by a large margin. 

The pace of the game was an extremely slow 90.5 possessions. Set to a normalized points per possession figure for these two, a game at that pace should finish with about 206 or 207 points total. The first game was abnormally high because of the white hot shooting in the first half.

I'm going to bet that the shooting here cools off. These are both above average defenses and I think there will be some good adjustments made. 

I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns have a very good team, and they are good at dictating the pace with Chris Paul running the show. Paul's teams have tended to like to play in the halfcourt more than not. The Suns this year are the same way. They are an above average defensive team too.

Paul George is out for the Clippers, and he is primarily an offensive star. Kawhi Leonard is a defensive superstar and he should be able to make the Suns stars take some difficult shots here. Tyronn Lue is a good defensive minded coach too.

This total is the same it was earlier this month when these two played in the regular season. This game means much more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is technically the first game of the playoffs with the play in tournament now complete. 

The Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers square off here. The Nets have slowed their pace down drastically late in the season. They rank 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 15 games. Philadelphia ranks 30th in tempo in that time frame. This game should be played in the halfcourt. 

Game one in the NBA playoffs tends to be a bit of tighter game with slower tempos to begin with. Early start times have been positive for under bettors through the playoffs and even more so in round one of the NBA playoffs.

The intensity should be up in this one, and I think the open shots will be tougher to come by than normal.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are expected to get Kevin Durant back in the lineup tonight. Durant is a fantastic scorer, but he hasn't played in a long time. Often these stars are a little rusty when they first come back, and Durant won't play his normal amount of minutes.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing some very good defenses. They held a high flying Sacramento Kings offense to 115 points. The game before that they had allowed only 96 points to Golden State. Minnesota's tempo has been slower in recent games than it was in the earlier part of the season.

This game matters to both teams. They are battling for position in the standings. The Western Conference playoff race is tight as can be for seeding, and we are coming down to the wire. The effort should be here in a game like this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game between two teams who have had a great season, but should continue to try to keep winning to help with the seeding in the playoffs. 

These late season games between two good teams have been very good under angles in the past 15 years in the NBA. In fact, two teams over 60% in win percentage late in the year squaring off has been a 56% plus angle to the under during that game. 

In this one, Philadelphia now narrowly has the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last ten games. The Nuggets are 26th in tempo so they don't like to push the tempo either. The 76ers are third best in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers host the Chicago Bulls in a game that means a lot to both teams when it comes to the playoff standings. 

The Lakers have been playing better basketball of late. LeBron James is questionable for this game. If he does return it would likely be on a minutes restriction and he isn't likely to be in top form right away. The Lakers defense has been very good of late. Los Angeles is 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. They have also drastically slowed their pace down from early in the year. They are now playing at a league average tempo.

The Bulls are dead last in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games, and it isn't very close. Chicago is averaging just 94.8 possessions per game in their last ten games. They are also a solid 10th in defensive efficiency.

This is an early game in Los Angeles on a Sunday. The Sunday early games in the NBA have been very good under wagers for the last decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets are coming off back to back losses to the Bulls at home and then at the Spurs. Denver really needs a bounce back here. 

The Brooklyn Nets have a completely new look. They do play pretty fast, but they have been playing good defense. Brooklyn is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. Brooklyn is also 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. 

Denver is 30-5 at home, and I would expect an improved defensive effort from this team after giving up 128 to the Spurs in their last game.

This is an early start in the Western Conference. It is also a Sunday early game and those have been good under wagers in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I like the addition of Mitchell Robinson back into the lineup for the Knicks. Robinson ranks second in defensive efficiency rating on the Knicks team of the players who average 25 minutes of more per game. Robinson is both a very good shot blocker and a good defensive rebounder.

The Knicks already play at a pace as slow as any team in the NBA. New York has had trouble with this Boston defense in their recent meetings.

Boston ranks bottom ten in the league in pace in their last ten games as well. The Celtics are expected to be without Jaylen Brown in this game. Brown is one of the keys to the offense.

This divisional contest is a big game for both teams and I like the defenses to show up strong here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks travel to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers tonight. Philadelphia has a solid history of playing lower scoring games against good teams. The under is 15-3 in the last 18 games the Sixers have played against a team with a winning record.

The ref crew in this game is a combined under record of a very solid 54.03% to the under in more than 1,100 games. This is about the best ref crew you could hope for if betting an under.

The Knicks rank dead last in pace in their last ten games. The 76ers are 24th out of 30 as well. This game should be played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jimmy Butler is expected to be back in the lineup tonight for the Heat. Miami has had some very low scoring games of late, but those were against teams who are very good on defense. 

Orlando is a bottom six or eight defense in the NBA. The Magic have played 17 of their last 23 games above this posted total. I think the Heat will have more success offensively against this Magic defense that is especially bad at defending the paint. 

Miami's defense is a good one, but the Magic are averaging 1.211 points per possession in their last five games.  Orlando's youngsters are starting to get much more efficient on offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have met twice this year. The posted total in each of the first two games was 235.5. That's about where this one should be again. We're getting several points of line value. This one is inflated due to recent results.

Atlanta's defense is league average in the last ten games. The Bulls are 10th in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. These two teams both play near the league average in tempo as well. 

These two teams both come into this game with a high fatigue factor. I think the pace will stay slower than expected here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare early game in the week for both these teams. It is Martin Luther King Jr. Day and these teams will meet in the afternoon. 

New Orleans is on a long road trip, and they are without Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. The Pelicans frontcourt will likely have trouble with Evan Mobley and company down low on defense for the Cavs.

Cleveland still ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA for the season overall. The Cavs are home and are the better team in this situation (injuries accounted for). Cleveland should be able to control the pace here.

Cleveland is coming off a road trip where they were worn down as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks rank dead last in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. New York is 11th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency during that period. They are very good on the defensive glass. This is a team that typically doesn't want to get in track meet type games.

Detroit plays fast, but they are bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Pistons don't have that many consistent scoring options on offense.

Both of these teams rank lowly in assist percentage.

This is an early game where we could see some scoring droughts in an odd start time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time Golden State and San Antonio played earlier this year the posted total was 234 points. Now it has jumped by double digits. 

Though the Warriors have had a lot of high scoring games lately, 10 of their last 12 games have gone below this total. The Spurs have had 5 of their last 6 go under this number.

This game will be played in the Alamodome with 60,000 people or so expected to be in attendance. This is a massive venue with a unique shooting backdrop. These two teams both have good shooters, but a total this high on a neutral site that is a football stadium is too high for me.

The adjustment from the first game has been too big too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavaliers will be without Donovan Mitchell in this game. To say that Mitchell has been a large part of the Cavs offense is a massive understatement. Mitchell has been on fire of late, and everything has been running through him. Darius Garland is also listed as questionable for this game. Raul Neto will get more minutes here, and he is a liability on offense. 

The Nuggets are 19th in the NBA in tempo. The Cavs are dead last in tempo. The Cavs are also first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Donovan Mitchell grades out as one of the Cavs weaker defenders, but he is a top offensive performer. 

I think the Cavs offense will be inefficient here. This total is pretty high given the circumstances.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Christmas Day has become a big showcase day for the NBA. The Knicks won the early Christmas game 101-87 last year in the noon eastern start time. 

Christmas Day unders in general have done well, and the earlier starts have been excellent for under bettors. 

These guys still try their best to have a Christmas with family and friends and this is a tough spot to come in here and play a very early tipoff at Madison Square Garden after most of them likely had their family time on Christmas Eve. 

We've seen these games trend to a slower pace and less fouls. 

These two teams are 2nd and 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are 10th and 17th in offensive efficiency. 

This is a divisional rivalry game and I expect the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets meet in a divisional matchup tonight before their break for Christmas Eve. The Mavericks must play again on Christmas afternoon. 

The final day before break at Christmas has been good to under bettors in the long run. These players do want to get home and have some time with family as much as they can.

Even in normal situations, I like the under in this game. Divisional unders with a total of 218 or higher in the first 70 games of the season are 54.5% since 2006. 

All three referees in this game have been good under referees. That is especially the case for Brian Forte who has seen 54.5% of his games in his career stay under. 

These two both rank in the bottom six in tempo in the NBA. Houston is 27th in offensive efficiency in the last ten games too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavaliers have played 14 straight games that have finished under this posted total. Cleveland has played 16 straight games that have stayed under this total in regulation. 

Cleveland is playing at the slowest pace in the NBA by a wide margin in their last 15 games. In fact, they are playing 2.5 possessions per game on average slower than the second slowest team in the league during this last 15 game span. They also have been the best defense in the NBA during that time. Cleveland is giving up just 1.043 points per possession. Mobley is a defensive beast, and the Cavs have really bought into their defensive style this season. 

Indiana is a higher scoring team, but they are middle of the pack in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Pacers are actually only 25th in offensive efficiency. They play quickly though and have scored points largely because of volume. I don't think the Cavs will get into a track meet with them. 

The Cavs are the much better team, and I like their defense to control this one. Divisional unders have fared much better than non-divisional unders long term in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs have the best defense in the NBA so far this year. They are giving up just 1.066 points per possession. In their last ten contests, Cleveland is allowing only 1.024 points per possession. Cleveland is also playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Cavs are averaging just 94.7 possessions per game in their last ten games.

Donovan Mitchell is questionable and he missed the shoot around for this game. He's obviously a huge part of the Cleveland offense. Kevin Love is out for this game. 

Sacramento is a high scoring team, and that's why the total is this high. The Kings have been even higher at home though, and the Cavs have been good at dictating the tempo. 

Cleveland's last 11 games have stayed under this total in regulation. Only one game went over this number and that was an overtime contest.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. The Cleveland Cavs are 29th in the NBA in tempo. This should be one of the slower paced games you'll see in the NBA regular season. 

Cleveland is first in defensive efficiency in the league when playing at home. The Cavs are 4th in defensive efficiency overall and the 76ers are third. A contest between two teams who work hard on the defensive end. 

The referee crew here is a big positive for the under. Two of the best under refs in the NBA are in this game tonight. Both Davis and Twardowski are nearly 54% to the under in their careers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets aren't the same offense without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. Those guys really bump up the efficiency numbers on offense. Terry Rozier is doubtful here too, and he and Ball are the two who really push the pace. 

Memphis has played poor defense overall this year, and that has led to some disappointing outcomes. They were much better defensively last game, and their coaching staff is really working on improving the defensive end.

I think this total would be appropriate if Rozier, Ball, and Hayward were all healthy, but they aren't. With these guys out, I believe this total is a few points high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency so far this year. Milwaukee has a ton of length all over the floor, and I would expect them to be a major problem for opposing offenses throughout the season. 

Milwaukee has been playing slower so far this year as well. In their first three games, Milwaukee is playing at a tempo slower than NBA league average. If that continues, I think the Bucks could have some much lower scoring games than expected. Their defense against the Nets last game was excellent.

The Knicks have been good so far this year, but this is a completely different matchup that should trouble them. New York is no faster than league average in tempo either.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are two very talented defensive teams. Boston was the best defense in the NBA last year. I see no reason to expect them to be worse on defense this year. The Celtics have length and athleticism all over the floor.

The 76ers have an elite shot blocker down low in Embiid. P.J. Tucker is a difference maker on the defensive end as well. I expect the 76ers to do a much better than average time keeping opponents out of the lane. If the Celtics are nailing a ton of 3's here it could hurt a lot, but overall I see Boston as an inconsistent long range shooting team.

The pace should be about average in this one. The last five meetings between these two teams have seen 4 of those games finish at 211 points or lower. 

Early season unders have done very well in the NBA in the long run. That has been especially true in conference and divisional matchups.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game 7 in Miami- it all comes down to this. The winner of this game goes to the NBA Finals. The loser of this game heads home thinking about what could have been. 

The Boston Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA. Boston wasn't good enough defensively against Jimmy Butler in Game 6, but I expect them to make things a lot tougher on him in Game 7. Overall, Miami has really had to work very hard to get open shots in this series, and their backcourt of Lowry and Strus hasn't been good enough on offense.

The Celtics offense is inconsistent. The Miami Heat are capable of playing excellent defense with guys like PJ Tucker locking down on the perimeter. Butler is a good defensive player as well. 

The pace of the game should slow quite a bit with everything on the line. We've seen strong trends toward unders in game 7's in recent decades in the NBA. Look for the two defenses to come with max effort. 

The Celtics were just involved in a very low scoring game 7 against Milwaukee. I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors both shot the ball extremely well in Game Two. Golden State averaged 1.286 points per possession in that game. Dallas averaged 1.182 points per possession.

Last game being so high scoring has led to this total being moved up by a few points. In fact, the Warriors and Mavericks have faced off six times this year. This is the second highest posted total of the season in their matchups.

Remember, this is a playoff game that is an absolute must win for the Dallas Mavericks. For a posted total to be the second highest of six matchups between these two- that stands out to me. 

In the playoffs- Dallas has played much slower and played much better defense in their home games. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the under at home in the playoffs. 

At home in the playoffs their games are averaging just 91.42 possessions and they are allowing only 1.024 points per possession. On the road their games have averaged 94.33 possessions and they are allowing 1.184 points per possession.

Look for Dallas to slow things down some here. The Mavericks should be giving max effort on defense. 

Both of these teams do shoot the ball well and there is potential for them to light it up for 3, but with this being a must win for Dallas and the oddsmakers setting the line several points higher I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Boston to take on the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the hotly contested Eastern Conference Semifinals series. This has been a fantastic series with great drama and some high levels of play by each team.

It's win or go home time for both teams. These win or go home games have consistently been played at a slower pace. Why? This game means everything and teams are far more likely to slow things down and try to avoid the ridiculous turnovers. These games also bring max effort on the defensive end.

Boston and Milwaukee are arguably the two best defensive teams in the NBA. They are at least both top five defenses in the NBA. There is a ton of length on the floor in this game, and I would expect a lot of contested shots.

Could they be hitting tough jumpers? Of course it is possible, but I like the chances of the under hitting in this situation.

Four of the six games in this series so far have finished at 204 points or lower. This one is the most important game yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dallas trails 3-2 in this series, so the Mavericks have to win this one to extend the series to a 7th game. The Mavericks won the first two meetings at home partially by slowing the tempo down. I expect Dallas to slow the pace down again here. The Mavericks have been better late in the season on the defensive end on their home court as well.

The pace in the last three games of this series has been an average of 92.5 possessions per game. If the teams average 1.14 points per possession (above average offensive efficiency), the game would finish at 211 points. 

Later in the series these games usually slow down. It is win or go home time and that usually brings about a slower pace and stronger defense. 

Dallas has the blueprint for winning against Phoenix. Can they do it again here? I don't know, but I do think they can set the pace enough to keep this below the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks come home to take on the Phoenix Suns in game of this series. Phoenix leads 2-0 after they destroyed Dallas in the fourth quarter of game two. 

While Luka Doncic has been great on offense his defense has been exposed here. I do think Jason Kidd is a good coach, and I expect Dallas to have a better defensive game plan for game three. They'll try to hide Doncic on defense when they can. 

Phoenix is a very good offensive team, but they aren't this good. The Suns are averaging an insane 1.35 points per possession in this series. They shot a little over 64% from the floor in game two. The first two games of this series have gone over the total easily. 

In the regular season, all three meetings between these two teams stayed under this total. Dallas is likely to want to slow the tempo down more in this game (the Mavericks had a bottom five tempo rating this year). 

This game now has a higher posted total than any of the regular season games between these two teams. Playoff games mean more and they are usually totaled much lower than regular season games. I think there is some recency bias in this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have a really good head coach in Nick Nurse. Nurse is known for two things- 1. His adjustments throughout a series and even in a game- 2. His defensive mindset and the unique defenses he puts together. Toronto has played much better defense in games 3-5 against the 76ers. 

Joel Embiid is hurting and that overall should hurt his offense more than his defense as well. The 76ers have been slowed down quite a bit of late too with Tyrese Maxey being shut down by the Raptors in recent games. 

Toronto has been much better at home on defense in general, and they will look to dictate the tempo and slow the game down here. 

As we get deeper into the series throughout the NBA in the playoffs, we typically see a slowdown in tempo and high intensity on defense. This is an elimination game and if Toronto wins this could be all the way back to 3-3. I think both teams show up with quality defense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This series is all tied up at 2-2. Game five in Memphis is a huge game. The Timberwolves have played the Grizzlies tough all season. 

Last game the final was 119-118. In that game, the two teams combined to shoot 33/68 (48.5%) from 3 point range. There were also 65 free throws in the game. Even with those numbers, the game edged over this total. 

As the games get more important the totals tend to on average get a little lower. If both teams shoot lights out here then this selection will lose, but if we see shooting numbers like their season averages I like this game to stay under. 

The pace of the game has been slower the last couple games in this series. As the series gets even more important the game is likely to slow down a little more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors 131-111 on Saturday night in game one. The pace of that game was 90 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the playoff contests on Saturday. The 76ers averaged an insane 1.472 points per possession in that game. That is almost unheard of in the NBA- especially in the playoffs. Toronto shot the ball extremely well and averaged 1.22 points per possession. They still lost by 20 points. 

These two teams were in the 1.13-1.14 range in points per possession in the regular season. Harden has made the 76ers offense better, but it isn't as good as they looked on Saturday. The 76ers had one turnover with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The shooting numbers should regress. 

The first game had a total of 215.5. We are getting 5 points higher on the line because of the insane efficiency numbers on offense in game one. At a pace of 90 possessions, the two teams could average 1.20 points per possession (above average) and the total points would finish at 216. 

I have to bet the under and hope the regression comes in game two. They can't be that good on offense the whole series. They are giving us 5 more points here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were absolutely torched by the LA Clippers last game. The Clippers put up 153 points and made 23 three point shots. Robert Covington made 11 of them by himself. The Bucks sat out all their best players in that game. 

Milwaukee is second in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks are just one game ahead of the fourth place 76ers. These last few games are important to the Bucks and I think with their starters back in the lineup here they will show up defensively.

Dallas was blasted by Washington in an embarrassing 135-103 game last time out. The Mavericks have been a top ten defense on the year though. Dallas ranks second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They will try to slow the game down here.

Two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher from game 60 of the season on- the under is slightly better than 57% since 2005. This angle has been very good in recent seasons. This game fits the angle.

This is also an early game on Sunday and those have been strong to the under in the long haul.

Both teams should be playing hard for playoff seeding here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night. Golden State plans to have Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala all on the floor together for the first time this year. 

Andre Iguodala has the best individual defensive player rating on this team. Green is second best. Thompson is clearly a good defender as well. With these guys all on the floor, Golden State is a very good defensive team. 

Phoenix has Chris Paul back in the lineup. Paul is excellent on offense, but the team plays at a slower pace with him leading the way. The Suns are in transition much more often when Cam Payne is at point guard. 

A game late in the season between two good teams has been a good under bet in the last 15 seasons in the NBA. In fact, between game 60 and 82 of the season a game played between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher- the under is 57.2% dating back to 2006. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the Utah Jazz in an important late regular season game between two teams tied in the Western Conference playoff standings. 

These teams are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference standings. They are also only 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota for the 7th spot in the standings. Remember, #7-#10 are in the "play in" tournament. Everyone will push hard to stay out of those spots. 

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been good to under bettors. When both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher and it is game 60 or later of the regular season the under is 56.9% dating back to 2005. In recent years, this angle has done very well.

Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. Utah ranks 24th. The tempo here should be slow. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry and to say that this team looks different now is a major understatement. Not surprisingly, Curry is easily Golden State's highest rated offensive player. Otto Porter Jr. is seeing a lot more minutes now and he is much better defensively than on offense.

Golden State ranks 3rd last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last two games (without Curry). Those two games were against terrible defenses in the Spurs and the Magic. Now, Golden State goes to play a top five defense in the NBA in Miami.

The Heat and the Warriors both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in tempo in the last month. I would expect this game to be played at a relatively slow tempo.

Miami is off an embarrassing loss where their defense gave up 113 points to a 76ers team without Harden and Embiid. The Heat should be better defensively.

There are multiple strong systems on the under late in the season in the NBA when it is a matchup of two teams with a good record. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers are both teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams want a halfcourt battle rather than a transition game.

Late in the NBA regular season, games between two teams with a high win percentage have been good under bets. In fact, games after game 60 of the regular season- when the road team has a win percentage of 55% or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 60% or higher.. and the total is 210 or higher- the under is a whopping 141-86 (62.1% unders).

This game fits this system nicely. Two good teams playing to better their position in the NBA playoff standings.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are without Chris Paul and Cam Payne right now. Aaron Holiday is questionable for this game. It might be Elfrid Payton and Landry Shamet seeing a lot of time in the backcourt here. 

Utah ranks second slowest in tempo in the last five games and fourth slowest in the league in tempo in their last ten games. The Jazz also rank top five in the league in defensive efficiency in both of those periods. 

Phoenix isn't as elite on offense without Paul on the floor. It puts more pressure on Booker and Ayton.

Early Sunday games have been strong under angles in the long run. Also, from game 60 of the season on a game between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher is 56.7% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two of the best defenses in the NBA. In their last ten games, the Celtics are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Boston is allowing 0.954 points per possession. The second best team in the league is allowing 1.058 points per possession in that ten game span. That kind of a difference between first and second is almost unheard of in the NBA.

The 76ers are 5th in the NBA in the last ten games in defensive efficiency. The 76ers are just as good defensively now as they were before the trade deadline. They did lose a couple key pieces on offense though, and Harden isn't on the floor yet thanks to an injury.

These two teams both rate in the middle of the league in offensive stats in the last ten games. This should be a defensive battle.

Boston ranks as slightly slower than average in tempo, while the 76ers rank 28th out of 30 in the league in tempo.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets will likely be without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. It isn't just the big three missing, but also Joe Harris and LaMarcus Aldridge. It will be Patty Mills stepping into big minutes and taking a bunch of shots here. The Nets are without all kinds of top playmakers on offense. They are also up against a Boston defense that is playing well. It would be hard to expect too much from the Nets offensively in this game.

How good is the Boston defense playing? In the past ten games, Boston is allowing 0.985 points per possession. That is first in the NBA. No one else in the NBA is allowing less than 1.065 points per possession. That's some terrific defense by the Celtics.

Boston also ranks 22nd in the league in tempo in their last ten games. Boston has been winning with defense and slowing the game down. The Nets are 19th in tempo during that time span. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have played at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the last 10 games. Boston has seen 13 of its last 17 games stay under this total in regulation. They have played some low scoring finals even in overtime. Boston is playing strong defense. They rank 7th in defensive efficiency in the last ten games.

Boston lists Marcus Smart as probable for this game. Smart is a great defender and often when coming back from a long break players can struggle offensively. 

Washington is the higher scoring team of these two, but the Wizards have had several contests with very high scoring and fast paced teams of late. That has skewed this total higher. Here, they are up against a different opponent who prefers the halfcourt and lower scoring game.

Sunday early game unders have been great especially in conference games in the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have been a very consistently slow paced team with low scoring games of late. Boston ranks second to last in the NBA in pace of play in their last 11 games. In those 11 games, Boston only has had three games go over this total in regulation (one stayed under even with an OT). 

The Celtics rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 11 games. Boston ranks 19th in offensive efficiency in that period. 

New Orleans is 15th in the league in tempo in that period. They are middle of the pack in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

These MLK Day early games have stayed under the total at a high rate in the past decade. The earliest start time games in general have been good under wagers.

I think the tempo is slow here and barring very high offensive efficiency, I think this one stays under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Rockets defense has been the worst in the NBA in the last ten games, and it isn't very close. Houston is giving up a whopping 1.238 points per possession. No one else is giving up more than 1.208. 

Houston is playing fast as well. The Rockets are 10th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. In their last five games, Houston ranks third in the league in tempo. Their offense has been middle of the pack, which is much improved from earlier this season.

Washington ranks 25th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games played. The Wizards have allowed 117 points or more in seven of their last nine games. 

Houston has allowed 120 points or more in seven of their last eight games. The other game they allowed 118 points. 

Look for a high scoring fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks are without 5 of their top 7 scorers in this game including star Trae Young. Atlanta has played two games without Young and in those two games they have played at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA during that span. Atlanta lacks go to guys on the offensive end now. They have played two games where they failed to score 100 points. Those contests totaled 202 and 194 points.

The New York Knicks rank as the second slowest paced team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Knicks aren't going to be running and gunning in this one. 

Christmas Day unders have been a great betting angle in the NBA in the past decade. Early games on Christmas Day staying under has been an even stronger angle. This is an extremely early tipoff.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank second last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Phoenix Suns rank second best in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Oklahoma City isn't likely to score very many points against Phoenix in this one.

The Thunder have slowed their pace down in recent weeks. Oklahoma City is likely to try to keep this pace slower than the league average.

The Suns are only giving up 0.992 points per possession which is excellent defensively in their last five games. 

The day before Christmas Eve has been a good under day in the NBA in the long term.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the LA Lakers tonight. Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game. 

Dallas ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA in the last eight games. It isn't particularly close either. In fact, in their last two games without Doncic, the Mavericks played to a pace of just under 90 possessions per game. That's extremely slow.

The Lakers are middle of the pack in tempo. Los Angeles does rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Mavericks rank 7th. These two teams are both competing well on the defensive end.

Both Malik Monk and Talen Horton Tucker are likely out here for the Lakers and those guys are good offensive options.

The referee crew is a positive as well. Brian Forte is 54.9% unders in his games as a ref (more than 800 games) and James Williams is at 52% unders in his career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks host the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday at noon eastern. This is an early Sunday tipoff, and these early tips on Sunday have been good under plays in the past decade. Sunday is the best day for unders in the NBA long term by a wide margin, and the early games have been even better for the under. 

The New York Knicks tempo is second slowest in the NBA in the last ten games. The Bucks rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Milwaukee is playing fairly quick, but they are playing slower than they did a year ago.

These two teams have met twice this year. The posted totals were 216.5 and 216. Both of those games went under the total. One of the unders was a game where the Bucks nailed a whopping 26 three pointers. The pace has been slow in the first two matchups.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a scorching hot shooting performance. Atlanta made 25/49 3 point field goal attempts in their win. That was the most made three-pointers on record for the Atlanta Hawks franchise. 

The Brooklyn Nets have been much better on defense this year. The primary improvement from them has been their 3 point defense. In fact, the Nets are number one in the NBA in 3 point defense. It isn't even close. The Nets are holding opponents to just 30.5% from 3 point range. No other team in the NBA is allowing less than 32.1% from beyond the arc.

These two teams are both about average in pace in the league. This is a really high total in this year's scoring environment in the NBA.

The Nets have had six straight games finish at 220 points or lower. Recency bias has this number very high because the Hawks have been on fire from three.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have been excellent defensively. In fact, in their last 8 games, the Warriors and Clippers rank #1 and #2 in defensive efficiency. These are two well coached defensive teams.

The Warriors and Clippers rank 15th and 16th in tempo in the last 8 games as well, so their pace isn't blazing fast by any means. 

This is an early tipoff on the West Coast and these weekend early tip offs on the West Coast have been very good unders in the past decade. 

Both of these teams are subpar when it comes to creating second chances. I think their initial shots will be covered better than normal in this one as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Detroit Pistons in a strange early Friday afternoon tilt on the West Coast. 

The teams were off for Thanksgiving, but they'll be back at it early on Friday. Early games have been good under bets in the NBA in the past, and early games on the West Coast have been even better. 

Detroit is one of the worst offenses in the NBA. They rank second worst in offensive efficiency. The Clippers rank second best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Detroit should have trouble scoring in this one.

The Clippers have shown they are willing to let off the gas when playing with a lead late, and they are clearly favorites in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Pistons offense is one of the weakest in the NBA. The Indiana Pacers have slowed down their tempo in recent games. Indiana ranks 25th out of 30 teams in the NBA in pace of play in their last ten games. The Pacers have been an under machine of late.

Detroit has shown that they typically play a game to the preferred tempo of their opponent. That is common for a weak and young team like the Pistons. 

Detroit has scored 91 points or less in four of their last eight games overall.

The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 road games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bradley Beal will miss this game following the death of his grandmother. Beal is clearly the best offensive player on this Washington team and the offense runs through him. Last year, Beal had one of the highest offensive player ratings, but he also had one of the worst defensive player ratings. 

The Wizards defense has been one of the best in the NBA of late. In fact, in their last three games, the Wizards have the best defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. 

Orlando is averaging just 0.96 points per possession on their home floor this year. The Magic just don't have enough good scoring options especially when they are taking on a talented defense. Wes Unseld Jr. has the Wizards working really hard on the defensive end. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the NBA in tempo. This is a divisional matchup and those are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls have improved a bunch on the defensive end. It's the number one reason this team has been so successful this season. The team made a lot of transactions in the offseason, and that has led to defense being prioritized much more by the current starters for Chicago.

The Dallas Mavericks have been very slow with their tempo this year. Dallas ranks 24th in pace of play this season. Chicago is a slightly below average 17th in tempo. 

Dallas ranks 15th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bulls rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

We have seen the way officials are calling the game in the NBA this year and how it has helped the under. The new basketball likely plays a role as well.

In this year's NBA, this is a pretty high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Tobias Harris in this one. Harris was averaging 19.8 points per game. They'll also be without long range shooter Danny Green. Joel Embiid will be back for this contest.

The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in tempo this year, and it isn't even close. They have really slowed their pace down a lot this season. The Bulls rank 20th in tempo, so they are slower than an average team as well.

The Bulls are 6th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. The 76ers are a solid 14th. Both of these defenses tend to put up a pretty good fight. 

Brian Forte and Scott Twardowski are two of the best "under" officials in the NBA. Both of them have seen more than 54% of their games all time stay under the total. Both are officiating this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a very high total, but it is very high for a good reason. Portland is easily playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. Damian Lillard has shot the ball terribly so far this season. How bad? Lillard is shooting 8% from 3 point range. He is shooting just 36% overall. The Blazers have still had 2 of their 3 games go over this posted total. 

Memphis has played 3 games and their lowest scoring game finished at 234 points. The other two were 239 and 253 points. The Grizzlies have a great offense and arguably their best defender, Dillon Brooks, is out with an injury. 

The Blazers are coming off a very low scoring output on a terrible shooting night. The Clippers are far better defensively than the Grizzlies though. Betting the over in the next game after a team has gone way under has been a profitable strategy in the NBA as well.

The pace will be there. I think more shots will fall as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* If you had just been betting closeout game unders in the NBA playoffs over the past decade, you would have made a bunch of money. 

Game 5 was a very high scoring tight game between the Suns and Bucks. Both teams shot the ball exceptionally well. 

The pace started fast in the first couple games of this series and it has consistently gotten slower and slower as the series has went on. How did they score so many points in game five? Was it a faster pace? Nope. It was by far the slowest paced game in this NBA Finals so far. Milwaukee averaged a ridiculous 1.352 points per possession. Phoenix averaged a very high 1.293 points per possession. 

Phoenix needs this game to stay alive. Their coach called them out for their defensive performance in game five. They should give a lot of effort on that end here. Milwaukee has the length to bother Phoenix. The Bucks have several very good individual defenders.

As the games get more crucial the pace tends to slow down. That has happened thus far in this series. If we get a pace like the last couple games, it takes a shooting performance far above season averages to get to this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers are locked into a tight battle in the Western Conference Finals. The Suns are up 2-1, but they could easily be down 2-1. Their last second win in game two was huge. The Clippers though have shown they are more than comfortable coming from down 2-0 in a series. 

The Clippers really turned up the defense in game three in their win over Phoenix. They also slowed the pace of the game a bit. Phoenix's Devin Booker struggled on offense with his mask for a facial injury. Chris Paul looked very rusty after missing a lot of time in the covid protocol. 

Phoenix's Cameron Payne is banged up right now and he has been key to the Suns offense especially in pushing the pace in the past. 

The Clippers offense is too reliant on Paul George without Leonard healthy. The Suns do have some quality defensive players who can make George have to work hard at all times.

The average pace for the first three games has been 93.67 possessions. At that pace, both teams could average 1.15 points per possession and the game would still a few points under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have lost back to back games where they were completely in control against the Atlanta Hawks. The 76ers now have their backs against the wall. Can they take care of business on the road to force a game 7?

Philadelphia had the second best defense when it comes to defensive efficiency in the regular season. The 76ers allowed just 1.070 points per possession. Atlanta had way too much offensive success late in game 5. Doc Rivers and some of the players talked about that in the postgame quotes. I think we see Philadelphia show a better effort on the defensive end here.

Atlanta's defense has been improved since Nate McMillan took over in the middle of the season, and that is the main reason they are at this point in the playoffs.

The long term trends for NBA closeout games going under the total are hard to ignore. The games tend to slow down and the defenses tend to improve when so much is on the line. We saw a game like that between the Bucks and the Nets on Thursday night. Also, the 76ers and Hawks average tempo has been just 98.5 possessions in the last two games which is clearly slower than it was in the first couple games of the series. 

At this high total, I'll side with the under in this crucial game six contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and the LA Clippers square off in Game 7 at Staples Center on Sunday afternoon. This is an early start time on the west coast. These early start games have been good to under bettors in the past decade. Additionally, Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the past decade. This game has both.

Even more importantly though, it is a game 7 in the playoffs. This game is the most important game of the year for both teams. Win or go home. In the last three games of the series the final total was 187, 205, and 201 points. The defenses have definitely improved as the series has gone along. Both teams have been working in some zone defenses and slowing down the opposition much better than they did earlier in the series.

Luka Doncic is getting a ton of attention from the Clippers defense right now. Kristaps Porzingis isn't making them pay for that either. His offense has been terrible in this series.

The Clippers have consistently played poorly on offense in huge games the past few season. 

Of course these two teams could bury shots and this one go over the total, but I think this is a plus expected value wager.

Game 7's are a different animal. The pace should stay slow here and the defenses will be making most of the shots contested.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers are down 3-2 and they come home to Staples Center to try to level this series at 3. 

Anthony Davis missed last game with a groin injury and he is listed as questionable for this one. Davis actually ranked as the team's highest rated offensive player in the regular season (just ahead of LeBron James). His versatility creates tons of open looks for everyone on this Lakers offense. Even if Davis plays, he won't be even close to 100 percent here. I think that hurts the Lakers offense quite a bit.

The Lakers rated as the best defense in the NBA in the regular season. They have won quite a few games down the stretch when they were shorthanded with their defensive pressure. 

The Suns and Lakers have shown they are happy to play at a slower pace in this series. One game went over the total in the first five, and that one didn't have any business going over (late fouls pushed it just over the number).

Elimination games late in the series have been strong to the under in the long run in the NBA. While this is a low number, it is low for a reason.

Expect the pace to be slow and the defensive intensity to be impressive here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* With the way these two teams have been shooting the ball this isn't an easy play to make, but I have to do it. The average pace of the first 3 games in this series is 90.83 possessions. 

The two teams have averaged 1.275 points per possession (Dallas) and 1.257 points per possession (LA Clippers) in the series. These are the two highest points per possession of any team in the NBA playoffs thus far. Are these the two best offenses in the NBA? No. Are these two of the worst defenses in the NBA? No. 

In the regular season these two played three games that all finished at 208 points or lower. 

With a pace of 90.83 possessions, the two teams would have to average more than 1.22 points per possession to get over this total. Their season long numbers don't suggest that can keep happening. The Clippers are a top five defense in the NBA for the year, and the Mavericks are an NBA average defense.

The NBA playoffs tend to bring about better defense and slower paced games as the games get more meaningful. These two teams have been red hot from the floor in the first three games. I think regression is likely.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The average pace in this series has been 95.5 possessions. If we assume there will be 96 possessions and both teams average 1.18 points per possession (higher than any team in the NBA averaged in the regular season) the total would still be lower than this posted total.

Both teams have shot lights out in this series. These aren't great defensive teams by any means, so I would expect fairly good shooting numbers. However, as the games get more important, the tempo usually slows even more and the defense gets a little better. 

In game three, there were more than 50 points scored in the last six minutes of the game. There were 29 points scored in the final 2:29 of the contest. That made a game that was a stone cold under turn into a terrible bad beat for under bettors. That has given us more value on the under here though. 

This game starts early in the afternoon local time. Early games have been better for under bettors than late games in the long term since the players are not accustomed to starting this early very often.

Of course both teams could shoot well and this lose, but at this high of a number I see a lot of value in this. Two of the three regular season games between these two finished at 217 points or lower.

This game means a lot to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The slowest paced game of the NBA playoffs so far was easily the Mavericks/Clippers Game 1 contest. That game was played to a snail's pace of 87.5 possessions. Both teams shot the ball far above their season averages and the game still finished at only 216 points. 

Dallas put up 1.284 points per possession. The Clippers averaged 1.184 points per possession. The average for these teams on offense during the regular season was about 1.15 points per possession. The two defenses gave up about 1.11 points per possession on average. 

The Clippers defense should be better in game two. The Mavericks got far too many open looks from 3 point range in game one. 

There were also 50 free throws in game one which is above normal for these teams. 

The Clippers are a top five defensive rebounding team in the NBA on the year. Dallas got back 34.9% of their misses on offense in game one. That should improve here.

While both of these teams are capable of shooting very well, this total is too high based upon the pace the regular season games between these two played out to. It is clearly too high if the pace from the first game in the playoffs happens again.

With playoff intensity and tighter defense, I think there is value here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* We saw the first day of NBA playoff games definitely ran lower scoring than regular season games on average. The pace was slower and the defensive intensity did pick up quite a bit. 

The New York Knicks were the slowest paced team in the NBA this year. The Knicks have been able to clamp down on defense in some of their biggest games this year. Coach Thibodeau has really changed this team for the better on the defensive end. 

Atlanta is a different team under Nate McMillan as well. The Hawks are now a middle of the road defense and middle of the road or slightly slower paced team. Earlier in the year this was a team looking to run all the time and playing very little defense.

The regular season games between these two were high, but this game means far more to both teams. Madison Square Garden is a good under venue on the whole because of the tough shooting backdrops. This being game one of a huge playoff series for the Knicks when they have been so bad for a long time should create some extra jitters and a great atmosphere.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In general we see the scoring go down in the NBA playoffs. Of course there will be some very high scoring games, but overall the average shooting numbers and the average tempo dips in the playoffs. The regular season games don't have the same intensity of these games.

Dallas and the LA Clippers have a rematch of their playoff series from last season here. There were some very high scoring games in that series. It is certainly possibly that could happen again, but these are different teams than a year ago.

With Rajon Rondo on the Clippers team and Lou Williams gone, the Clippers are playing a much slower pace. Williams was the Clippers most efficient offensive player against Dallas last year as well. The Clippers ranked 8th in the NBA in tempo last year. They ranked 28th in tempo this year.

Dallas ranked 18th in tempo last year. They ranked 26th this year. The Mavericks have been slightly less efficient on offense this year as well.

The three regular season games between these two finished at 197 points, 208 points, and 194 points. 

The average pace was 93.8 possessions (very slow) in those regular season games. The two teams averaging a very good 1.16 points per possession (above average) with a pace of 94 possessions would still put this total at only 218. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte Hornets offense is a completely different looking unit with LaMelo Ball on the floor. Charlotte had some major offensive struggles without Ball and Malik Monk in recent months. Those guys are back on the floor and two key things have occurred to help the games be higher scoring of late. First, Charlotte is clearly playing faster again. This team had a bottom five tempo without them on the floor, but with these guys Charlotte is playing in the top 12 teams in terms of tempo. Second, their offensive efficiency has gone up.

Denver is playing at a league average pace, and the Nuggets are an above average offense even without Jamaal Murray on the court. The Nuggets should be able to create many scoring chances near the basket here. 

Charlotte's games are being totaled too low right now in my opinion. This team has scored 107 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games. They have had 4 of their last 5 games finish at 219 points or higher. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Lakers are expected to be without LeBron James here. They are without Dennis Schroder as well. We all know what James means to this team. Offensively, Schroder is a force as well. His defense is subpar and his backups are better defensively than him. Kyle Kuzma is doubtful for this game as well. 

Anthony Davis is a great first option scoring wise, but he isn't 100 percent healthy, and he really doesn't have anyone helping with the load here. The Lakers are short on scoring options right now.

Phoenix has been shooting extremely well of late, but the Lakers rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the year. The Lakers should give a good effort on defense here since every game means a ton to them when it comes to the playoff standings.

Late season regular season games between two playoff bound teams have been great to the under in the long run. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Clippers host the New York Knicks in a very early game in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon. These early Sunday afternoon games have been great for under bettors through the years. That trend is even stronger when the game is being played on the West Coast. 

The Clippers have played at the slowest pace in the NBA in the last five games. The Knicks have the slowest pace for the year as a whole. The first game they played against each other was played to just 93 possessions, but both teams shot the lights out. 

A game played at 93 possessions could see 1.16 and 1.15 points per possession and still stay under this total. That is above average shooting in the NBA overall. 

Rondo has slowed the pace down some for the Clippers, and he has really helped their defense. 

These two teams are both above average on the defensive boards. 

Take the under in this Sunday afternoon contest. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers are 9-1 to the under in their last 10. The Clippers have played at easily the slowest pace in the NBA in their last three games. Their last 3 games have averaged 91.5 possessions. No one else in the NBA is slower than 95 possessions in that time. 

The Lakers are without LeBron James and Dennis Schroder here. LeBron is clearly their best offensive player. Schroder ranks as their third most efficient player on offense (but he has been weak defensively) behind only James and Anthony Davis.

The Lakers have consistently struggled to get open looks against the Clippers in the last couple years. I wouldn't expect that to improve without James and Schroder here.

The Lakers have been playing excellent defense. They rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season. 

This game is important to both teams who are fighting for position in the playoff standings in the Western Conference.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns have the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last five games. The Suns have been extremely efficient on offense, but their shooting numbers should regress to season averages over time. They have averaged 1.25 points per possession in their last five games. On the season, they are slightly below 1.17 points per possession.

Atlanta's defense has been much better since their coaching change. The Hawks have played much slower as well. Atlanta ranks 23rd in the NBA in tempo in their last five games. This should be a slow paced contest.

Phoenix and Atlanta both rank in the top five in the NBA in 3 point defense. In one game you never know what can happen, but we should expect the 3 pointers in this game to be at least well contested. 

Without very good shooting numbers, this one projects as a game that stays below this total because of the pace of play.

Both of these teams have plenty to play for, so I expect the defenses to be giving a lot of effort.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The number one and number two teams in the Western Conference playoff standings meet up tonight in Phoenix. 

Utah will be without both Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell is a huge loss on the offensive end. Though Utah made 64% of their shots and put up a massive number on Sacramento (no defense) in their last game, the Jazz still are at only 1.139 points per possession in their last 8 games. Before last game, their offensive numbers were way down without Mitchell. On the other side, Utah has actually been better on defense without Mitchell. 

Phoenix and Utah have met twice in the regular season. Neither of the two games have been even close to this total at the end of regulation (last game went into OT). 

This fits a great late season angle- two teams above 60% win percentage on the season playing against each other. These have been 57.5% to the under over a very large sample size.

This game means a lot to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks have been red hot from the floor of late. New York is only a mediocre offensive team though, and I think they will regress to the mean. The Knicks are averaging 1.21 points per possession in their last five games. On the year, they are averaging 1.099 points per possession. 

Toronto will be without Chris Boucher here, and he has been red hot of late. Boucher is tied with Pascal Siakim as their highest rated offensive player on the season. Their offense takes a big hit without him. Freddie Gillespie will get a lot of the minutes at power forward. Gillespie is one of the lowest rated offensive players on this roster, but he rates better defensively than Boucher on the season.

The Knicks rate 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season. They also rank as the slowest paced team in the league.

This is a pretty high total for a Knicks game. An early start on a weekend helps the under in the long run as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Game of the Week* The first time these two teams played this year the Lakers won 96-95. Of course the Lakers had LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the floor for that game. What has changed for the Lakers without those guys? The biggest change has been their offensive efficiency has gotten much worse. 

The Lakers on the season are averaging 1.098 points per possession. They are averaging just 1.031 points per possession in the 14 games since LeBron went down with an injury. Their defensive efficiency has actually been slightly better in that time.

Boston struggled badly on defense for much of the year, but Brad Stevens finally has this team working much harder on defense of late. The Celtics rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Lakers rank first in defensive efficiency in that span.

The first game these two played was just 93.5 possessions. That is an extremely slow pace. The Celtics have slowed their tempo in recent games and the Lakers have played slower since adding Drummond. 

The Lakers have had 11 of their last 14 games go under this total. Four of the Celtics last six games have finished at 202 points or fewer.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lakers take on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Monday night. The Lakers are coming off one of their best wins of the year. They defeated the Nets as a big underdog. The fact that they did it without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Kyle Kuzma is really impressive. The Knicks are coming off an OT win over Memphis and a tight win at home against Toronto. Both teams are in pretty good form.

These two teams have been doing it with defense of late. The Lakers rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Knicks rank second. 

The Lakers rank 27th in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the last ten games. The Knicks rank 25th. 

This is a very low total in today's NBA, but it is low for a good reason. Only two of the Knicks last 9 games have gone over this low total. The Lakers have only had one game finish higher than 214 points in their last 9 contests despite playing some very good offenses in that span (Nets, Clippers, Bucks, 76ers). 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* When two good teams play each other late in the NBA season, I always want to take an initial look at the under. This one is one I have to play because of the spot.

Phoenix is coming off a huge win over the Jazz last night. The Suns really slowed the pace of that game down. They have shown to prefer a slow pace this year overall. 

The Clippers rank 26th in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. They also rank fifth in defensive efficiency. This team has really turned things up on the defensive end of late. 

Phoenix ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that period. 

Both of these teams are good offensively, but with the pace I expect this to be played at they would need to shoot a very high percentage to get past the total.

In a key game between two high quality teams, I'll take the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers are averaging only 1.01 points per possession without LeBron James in the lineup this year. That is drastically lower than their 1.14 points per possession with him in the lineup. The Lakers are still excellent on defense without LeBron. In fact, the Lakers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing only 1.03 points per possession in their last seven games. 

The Clippers play at the third slowest pace in the NBA in their last seven games. The Clippers are also improving on the defensive end of late. They rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in that period. 

The Lakers just shot lights out from 3 point range in their win over the Kings in their last game. They are unlikely to be able to keep that up against a much more respectable defense in the Clippers. 

The Lakers have seen 7 of their last 8 games finish with 210 points or lower. The Clippers have seen 3 of their last 5 games finish with 199 points or lower. 

This is an early start on the West Coast and it is a rivalry game between division opponents.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacramento Kings beat the LA Lakers 123-120 a month ago. There were some extremely good shooting numbers on that night. Sacramento shot 60% from the floor. The Lakers shot 53% from the floor. The pace in the game was just 95.5 possessions. The two teams averaged a whopping 1.281 and 1.263 points per possession in that game. 

The Lakers offense has been a hot mess of late. I do realize the Kings have a weak defense and the Lakers could look a bit better here offensively. Still, this is a really high total for a Lakers game right now. The Lakers ranks second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency since LeBron went down to an injury. They also rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Lakers have seen only one of their last seven games go above 210 points.

Sacramento has played a bit slower of late, and their defense has been just a touch better. The Kings rank 15th in the NBA in tempo in their last seven games.

This is a divisional game and divisional games have gone under the total 53% of the time from game 42 on in the regular season.

I think the Lakers keep this game a bit lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* What do the Charlotte Hornets look like without LaMelo Ball compared to with him? The Hornets rank 12th in the NBA in tempo for the season overall. In their last four games they rank 29th (second to last) in the NBA in tempo. They have clearly slowed things down, which makes a lot of sense because Ball is great in transition and they definitely miss him in the open floor.

Phoenix ranks 24th in the NBA in tempo on the season. The Suns are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. This is a team that is capable of scoring plenty, but their defense is often underrated. 

Sunday has been the best "under" day in the NBA for the past decade, and it isn't even close. This is an early start time (very early for Phoenix especially), and the early starts have been good under bets through the years as well.

The under is 4-0 in the Suns last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-2 in the Hornets last 7 Sunday games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat defense had their single worst performance of the year on Friday night against Indiana. The Pacers absolutely torched them for 20/36 from 3 point range and 137 points. 

Miami is 3rd in points per game allowed on the year. They are second in field goal percentage defense. The Heat are a defense first team, and I expect a bounce back performance on defense here. Miami had allowed 103 points per game or less in eight straight games before that terrible performance on Friday night! 

Miami's Goran Dragic is questionable with a back injury here. Dragic is one of their best offensive players and a questionable defensive player. The Heat also signed Trevor Ariza who is thought of as a solid defensive contributor.

This is an early Sunday game and those have been good for the under in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Jazz have been money as a road favorite this year. Why? The Jazz have the best defense in the NBA at home, but they are merely mediocre defensively on the road. Utah has allowed 1.158 points per possession in their last 10 road games (that ranks 23rd in the NBA). They are now up against a Boston offense that has been on fire of late. Boston is averaging 1.208 points per possession in their last five games. They have been shooting the ball really well from the outside.

Boston's defense has been non-existent of late. Boston has allowed 1.183 points per possession in their last eight games. That is second worst in the NBA. The Jazz have a high powered offense now, and it is hard to see Utah struggling to score here.

Look for both offenses to have a leg up here.

The over is 5-0 in the Jazz's last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Houston Rockets offense is terrible. Houston is playing without John Wall, Victor Oladipo, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, and Daniel House Jr. The Rockets are averaging 0.952 points per possession in their last five games. No one else in the NBA is averaging worse than 1 point per possession in that time. Have the Rockets played great defenses during that time? Not really. We'll give them the Utah Jazz being a tough defense certainly. The other four games were against: Sacramento, Brooklyn, Cleveland, and Memphis. Three of those teams rank in the bottom eight in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

The Boston Celtics defense has been weak of late, but this is the worst offense they have been up against lately and it isn't even close. Boston should grab a lead here and slow things down. They do prefer to play at a slow tempo compared to the league average. Boston's offense ranks just 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the road. 

Houston's defense has been better at home, but their offense has actually been much worse at home this year than on the road.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte Hornets have been playing at a much faster pace in recent games. Without Zeller and Hayward, the team has a lineup full of weak defensive players, but guys who are more than capable of getting out and running. Charlotte is 4th in the NBA in tempo in their last five contests. The Hornets are also second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that period.

Minnesota is playing much faster under their new head coach. The Timberwolves have shot the ball poorly in their last couple games. They should shoot it better here. In the games since he has been coach, the Timberwolves games have gone to 251, 238, 240, and 217 points in regulation.

The Hornets last 5 games have finished at 242, 245, 251, 253, and 234 points. 

This total is high, but it isn't high enough. There should be a ton of uptempo basketball here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Timberwolves have a new coach in Chris Finch. Finch has made it clear he wants the team to push the pace. In his first three games as coach, the Timberwolves are 3-0 to the over. They rank second in the NBA in tempo in the last three games as well. Minnesota has a bottom five defense in the NBA, so if they want to play this fast I fully expect them to continue giving up a bunch of points. In Finch's first three games, the Timberwolves games have had totals of 251, 236, and 240 points. 

Phoenix plays at a slower pace than Minnesota, but the Suns are number one in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. The Suns should get a ton of open looks against this terrible Minnesota defense. While the Suns offense has been great of late, their defense has been subpar in the last ten games. 

With the Suns efficiency and Minnesota's pace, I think this one is a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Wizards rank first in the NBA in tempo. The Minnesota Timberwolves have played much faster in their first two games since new coach Chris Finch took over. He is a guy who really wants to see the team space out the floor and move quickly. Karl Anthony Towns will get plenty of chances to show himself as an offensive playmaker in this system.

Washington isn't a good defensive team. The Wizards do have several very athletic players who can get to the basket or create open looks from the outside for their teammates. This Minnesota defense is a bottom five defense in the NBA.

This is a really high total, but I believe this number is still too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Timberwolves have a new coach in Chris Finch. Finch has been around the NBA quite a bit and everywhere he has gone he has wanted to push the tempo. In Finch's first game as head coach the Timberwolves played their contest against Milwaukee to 106 possessions (3rd fastest paced game of the year), so it was an initial sign that the faster pace is already showing up. Look for that to continue. 

Minnesota has a bottom 8 or 9 defense in the NBA though, and the Chicago Bulls offense has been solid with LaVine and White really playing well. Chicago has potential to put up a big number here against this Wolves defense.

Chicago ranks fourth in the NBA in pace for the year overall, and I don't see them trying to slow this game down. 

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted the Minnesota total enough based on their new style of play. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are playing at the slowest pace in the NBA in their past ten games. Portland is playing at the 23rd fastest pace, so they are playing slowly as well. This is an extremely high total for a game that should be played at a slow pace.

Phoenix has been on fire from long distance. The Suns are a combined 46/85 (54.1%) from 3 point range in their last two games. This is an above average jump shooting team, but regression has to come for them from 3 point range. No team can shoot like this from 3 point range for too long. Portland also ranks 12th in the NBA in 3 point FG% defense.

Portland shoots a bunch of three pointers and Phoenix ranks 3rd in the league in 3 point defense. 

This total is so high because their recent games have been so high. The number is inflated a bit because of those high shooting percentages.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers host the Houston Rockets tonight. This isn't the same Houston Rockets team we have seen in recent seasons. This is now a team that is extremely inefficient on offense. In fact, Houston is dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games played. 

Philadelphia's instant offense in Shake Milton is gone for tonight's game. Milton is weak defensively and strong offensively. The players who get his minutes are an upgrade defensively and a downgrade on offense.

This is an awfully high total for a game that should be played at about an average tempo, especially considering we have one team who is very inefficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat and Washington Wizards just met on Wednesday night. The final in that one was 103-100. There were 98 possessions in that game.

The total here has been bet up through the day. It has gotten to a point where I have to take the under. 

If we assume there will be 99 possessions (1 faster than Wednesday) even if the teams average 1.15 points per possession (very good shooting) this would be under the total.

One of the best under referees is the lead ref in this game. Brian Forte's games are 55% to the under in his career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back. They were excellent in their blowout win over Orlando. Their defense was tremendous in that game.

The New York Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA, and it isn't even close. New York is averaging 94.70 possessions per game in their last 10 contests. The second slowest in the NBA is the Denver Nuggets, but they are averaging 97.21 possessions per game.

The Clippers rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. The Knicks rank sixth in that same statistic. 

The Knicks are better coached this year and they have been competitive. In 10 of the Knicks last 13 games, the total has stayed under this number.

This is an early Sunday game and Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets have actually slowed their pace of play with Harden, Irving, and Durant on the floor together. Harden dribbles it a lot and uses up the clock more than most people realize.

Atlanta has also slowed their pace down and they have been better defensively of late.

For the season, these two teams are 5th and 12th in terms of tempo. In their last three games only, these two teams are 17th and 22nd in tempo. 

If they are going to play at an average pace or slower, this is an extremely high total. Sure, there is a chance all the shots are falling and it gets past this total. Still, with this referee crew skewing to the under and a slower pace I have to back the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sunday has been the single best day of the week to bet unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Early unders have done very well in the long run. Western Conference early unders (5 pm eastern or earlier) are 6-2 to the under this season.

The Clippers should have a fairly easy time with the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Clippers put up a pretty big point total against OKC in their last game, but they did make 24/25 from the free throw line in that game.

The Thunder are certainly more limited without Al Horford. Also, the Thunder rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last five games. 

For the season overall, the Clippers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are 5-0 to the under with Draymond Green in the lineup. Draymond Green can be an offensive liability at times, especially when the Warriors only have one elite shooter around him instead of two (with Klay Thompson out this year). Green though is the team's best defender and he has really helped the Warriors on that end of the floor.

The Lakers have the number one defensive efficiency rating in the NBA in their last five games. When they are engaged, the Lakers have a very athletic team that can really shut down the opposition.

The Lakers should have the lead in this game late, and LA has been good at slowing the pace down when they do have the lead in the fourth quarter.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics are still without Jayson Tatum. Tatum had been an offensive machine early this year, and he is a huge loss on that end of the floor. 

Tristan Thompson should get a bunch of minutes in the paint here with the Celtics very shorthanded in the frontcourt. Thompson is a really good defender and he should slow the Knicks down inside. Thompson isn't very good offensively and him playing more is a positive for the under.

Which NBA team is playing at the slowest pace in the last five games? The Knicks and it isn't very close. They are averaging only 93 possessions per contest in that time.

Boston put up a big point total against Orlando, but the Magic rank second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. The Magic also play pretty quickly.

This is an early start on Sunday, and these early games on Sunday have been very good under bets in the past decade.

Take the under.